2022-02-14-牛津经济研究院-Africa_Political_economy_watchlist_2022_5页_386kb

Political Economy Watchlist 2022 Summary

North and the Horn of Africa

• Key Focus: The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) dispute remains a primary driver of regional tension, affecting Egypt and Ethiopia.
• Risks: Military influence in Sudan may exploit Ethiopia's civil conflict, leading to further destabilization. Egypt faces social unrest due to potential bread subsidy removal, compounded by water security concerns.

East Africa

• Key Issues: Insurgent threats disrupt business operations; for example, Mozambique's LNG industry may resume after security improvements, but risks persist from groups like Al-Shabaab in Kenya.
• Outcomes: Economic recovery in Mozambique could be hindered by former loan scandals, while Kenya maintains heightened security amid terrorism.

West Africa

• Trends: Military coups in Mali, Guinea, and Burkina Faso increase instability; anti-French sentiment fuels resistance to Western influence.
• Implications: Ecowas may flexibly respond to regional events but risks accelerating away from liberal economic models. Economic growth in Senegal and Côte d'Ivoire could be undermined if stability deteriorates.

Southern Africa

• Developments: Democratic gains in Malawi and Zambia, coupled with South Africa's ongoing corruption investigations and party infighting, could improve governance accountability.
• Challenges: Angola's reform program shows economic improvement from a five-year depression, but debt issues may resurface post-2023. Eswatini's unrest highlights volatility in demanding reforms.