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Armenia and Turkey: Bridging the Gap - Summary

Core Content

The document discusses the stalled process of normalization between Armenia and Turkey, highlighting its potential to transform the South Caucasus region if successfully completed. It outlines the historical, political, and economic factors that have contributed to the impasse, as well as the opportunities for reconciliation and cooperation.

Main Views

• Historic Normalization Process:
  In 2009, Armenia and Turkey signed two protocols aimed at normalizing relations, marking a significant step toward reconciliation. The process stalled in 2010 due to a lack of domestic political support and the unresolved Nagorny Karabakh conflict.

• Impact of the Karabakh Conflict:
  The Nagorny Karabakh dispute is a major obstacle to normalization. Azerbaijan, a key ally of Turkey, opposes any progress without a resolution to the Karabakh issue. Turkey's reluctance to ratify the protocols is partly due to pressure from Azerbaijan.

• Genocide Debate:
  The use of the term "genocide" to describe the 1915 Armenian massacres remains a contentious issue. The Armenian diaspora and government have long lobbied for its recognition, while Turkey denies it and highlights the suffering of Ottoman Muslims during the same period. The U.S. Congress passed a resolution calling the events "genocide" in 2010, prompting a Turkish diplomatic response.

• Economic and Strategic Benefits:
  Normalization could lead to significant economic benefits for Armenia, including increased trade and lower transportation costs. It would also allow Turkey to engage more neutrally in the South Caucasus and potentially gain more influence over the Karabakh issue.

• Role of Track II Initiatives:
  Non-political Track II initiatives, such as cultural and educational exchanges, are seen as essential in building mutual understanding and trust between Armenians and Turks. These initiatives are underutilized compared to efforts between Armenians and Azerbaijanis.

• The 2015 Centenary:
  The centenary of the Armenian tragedy in 2015 is viewed as a pivotal moment for reconciliation. The document suggests that the U.S., particularly President Obama, should encourage Turkey to participate in the commemoration to foster a more positive relationship.

Key Information

• Border Closure:
  The Armenia-Turkey border has been closed since 1993, following Armenian military actions in Nagorny Karabakh. This closure has led to regional isolation for Armenia and a lack of economic integration.

• Diplomatic Efforts:
  The Swiss foreign ministry has facilitated secret talks between Armenian and Turkish diplomats. In 2009, Turkish President Abdullah Gül attended a soccer match in Yerevan, signaling a willingness to engage with Armenia.

• Public Reactions:
  There has been some public support for normalization in Turkey, with Armenian tourists and cultural events gaining traction. However, the Armenian government has faced domestic criticism for its cautious approach to the protocols.

• Azerbaijan's Position:
  Azerbaijan fears that opening the Armenia-Turkey border would reduce its leverage in the Karabakh negotiations. The document argues that Azerbaijan could actually benefit in the long term from a normalized relationship.

• Potential Initiatives:
  Several initiatives could help bridge the gap, including opening a zone near Ani, inviting diaspora Armenians to visit Ottoman-era sites, digitizing Ottoman archives, and restoring the Talat Pasha memorial in Istanbul.

Conclusion

The normalization of Armenian-Turkish relations is crucial for regional stability and economic development. While the process has stalled, the centenary of the Armenian tragedy in 2015 offers a potential turning point. The international community, particularly the U.S., should support both sides in finding a common ground, while emphasizing the importance of a flexible, long-term strategy that respects both historical sensitivities and strategic interests.