2030年的资本市场：股权资本市场的未来（英文）-普华永道_25页_10mb

Capital Markets in 2030 Summary

Core Content

This report explores the evolving landscape of global equity capital markets, focusing on the role of emerging market (EM) exchanges and the continued dominance of developed market (DM) exchanges such as New York, London, and Hong Kong. It includes insights from global executives surveyed by PwC and The Economist Intelligence Unit, highlighting the shifting dynamics and key factors influencing companies' decisions on where to list.

Main Points

• Market Resilience: The New York, London, and Hong Kong exchanges have proven more resilient than anticipated in 2011, maintaining their lead despite slower growth in EM exchanges.
• EM Growth: While EM exchanges have not grown as rapidly as expected, Chinese and Indian companies are still expected to dominate future IPO activity.
• Sector Trends: Technology companies continue to be a major force in IPO activity, especially in the US and China. The sector's growth and the competition between exchanges for 'unicorns' and new economy firms are expected to persist.
• Capital Raising Options: The range of capital raising options has expanded, with private equity and venture capital playing a significant role. However, public equity markets are still viewed as a vital source of funding.
• Liquidity and Valuation: Liquidity remains the top priority for companies when choosing a listing location, followed by valuations and listing costs. The size of the investor base and market ecosystems have become less important.
• Private Markets: Private markets are seen as complementary rather than competitive with public markets. Private equity is the most attractive private funding option.
• Geographic Preferences: Despite increased interest in EM exchanges, DM exchanges continue to dominate as preferred listing destinations, especially for foreign issuers.
• India's Rise: India has seen a significant increase in IPO activity, with its exchanges becoming more attractive, though not as much as initially anticipated.
• China's Market Development: China's capital markets are growing but remain somewhat closed to international investors. The establishment of trading mechanisms such as the Shanghai-London Stock Connect is helping to open the market gradually.
• Technology Impact: The continued growth of technology firms and the associated demand for capital are expected to influence the future of IPO activity and the competitiveness of exchanges.

Key Information

• Survey Data: The report is based on a survey of nearly 400 global executives, reflecting changes in perspectives since 2011.
• Market Capitalisation: In 2018, the combined market capitalisation of US exchanges was significantly higher than that of Chinese exchanges.
• IPO Activity: Technology and financials were the dominant sectors in IPO activity from 2016-2018.
• Exchange Preferences: In 2030, the top exchanges for cross-border listings are expected to be New York, London, and Nasdaq, with Shanghai and India moving down the list.
• Investor Base: There are 300 million domestic retail accounts investing in Chinese stocks, indicating a large potential market for capital raising.
• Regulatory Changes: Regulatory amendments in Hong Kong and mainland China have made it easier for technology companies to list, especially with the introduction of dual-class shares and relaxed profitability requirements for biotech firms.
• Globalisation Concerns: The rise of populism and nationalism has led to a re-evaluation of globalisation, potentially affecting the role and growth of EM exchanges.

Conclusion

The public equity markets remain a crucial platform for capital raising, with the US, London, and Hong Kong exchanges expected to maintain their leadership in 2030. While EM exchanges are growing and maturing, they have not yet displaced DM exchanges as the primary choice for listing. The report suggests that the future of capital markets will be shaped by a combination of regulatory developments, market resilience, and the increasing importance of technology and private capital.