世界银行-菲律宾经济更新，2023年6月：确保清洁能源的未来（英）-70页_5mb

报告摘要

Philippine Economic Update 2023
The Philippines achieved 6.4% year-on-year GDP growth in Q1 2023, outperforming regional peers. The economy was driven by robust domestic demand, tourism recovery, and improved consumer spending.
The services sector significantly supported growth, while industry slowed due to weak external demand. Agriculture saw a rebound from favorable weather and livestock recovery.
Inflation averaged 7.9% in 2023, exceeding the target range of 2–4%. The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas raised the policy rate by 75 bps to combat inflation.
The fiscal deficit narrowed to 4.8% of GDP in Q1 2023 due to reduced public spending, while national debt stood at 61.0% of GDP as of March 2023.
Labor market participation increased, with a rise in female workforce participation, but poverty reduction faces challenges due to low-quality jobs.

Growth Outlook:
The Philippines' growth is projected at 6.0% for 2023, supported by strong domestic demand despite global slowdown. Medium-term growth is expected to decline gradually to 5.9% by 2025.
Investment growth may soften due to fiscal consolidation and higher interest rates, but reforms could encourage private investment.
Global economic slowdown and service-led recovery are expected to moderate external demand.
Risks:
Global inflation and tighter financial conditions pose risks to growth. Sticky core inflation may lead to further monetary tightening.
Climate change, supply chain disruptions, and geopolitical tensions could disrupt economic activity.
Private investment may also be dampened by higher borrowing costs.