2023-06-13-未来能源研究所-改革资源充足性实践确保清洁能源转型的可靠性_21页_7mb

Report Summary: Reforming Resource Adequacy Practices and Ensuring Reliability in the Clean Energy Transition

Report Details:

• Title: Reforming Resource Adequacy Practices and Ensuring Reliability in the Clean Energy Transition
• Authors: Molly Robertson, Karen Palmer, Todd Aagaard
• Date: May 2023
• Organization: Resources for the Future (RFF)

1. Background

• The proliferation of renewable energy due to policies like the Inflation Reduction Act challenges traditional resource adequacy (RA) frameworks, which ensure sufficient electricity generation to meet demand and prevent blackouts.
• RA reforms are being considered to better integrate intermittent resources (e.g., solar, wind) and storage into system reliability planning, balancing cost, reliability, and decarbonization goals.

2. Current RA Frameworks

• RA mechanisms vary by region, including:
  • Decentralized procurement (e.g., California), where load-serving entities (LSEs) procure resources independently.
  • Organized capacity markets (e.g., PJM), where generators bid for capacity and penalties enforce availability.
• Key challenges include:
  • Uncertainty in estimating future generation availability from new technologies.
  • Inefficient resource valuation (e.g., under/overvaluing intermittent resources).
  • Balancing reliability with cost containment.

3. Areas of Reform

Five key areas for RA reform are identified:

3.1. Modernizing Generation Modeling

• Incorporating more granular data on demand variability and resource availability.
• Addressing risks from extreme weather events and new technologies, including climate change impacts.

3.2. Adopting Marginal ELCC

• ELCC determines a resource’s ability to meet peak demand; marginal ELCC values only incremental capacity.
• Challenges:
  • Marginal ELCC can heavily devalue resources when penetration is high.
  • Questions about incentive adequacy for low-carbon generation.

3.3. Differentiating Resource Value

• Tying resource-specific reliability traits (e.g., fuel availability) more directly to accreditation.
• Debate continues on whether thermal resources should be accredited more like renewables.

3.4. Changing Penalty Structures and Incentives

• Penalties for nonperformance are critical but may not account for unavoidable factors like weather.
• Alternatives include differentiated market products or performance-based compensation.

3.5. Considering Slice-of-Day and Seasonal Markets

• Granular analysis of demand-time windows (e.g., hourly or daily profiles) better captures variability.
• Seasonal markets address resource availability and demand spikes during specific seasons.

4. Conclusion and Remaining Questions

• RA reforms must balance reliability, cost, and decarbonization goals as renewable penetration increases.
• Key questions for future research:
  • How to design effective seasonal or intra-day markets?
  • Can marginal ELCC frameworks support renewable investment adequately?
  • What is the optimal outage risk level for system operators?