世界银行-《南亚发展动态》，2023年10月：迈向更快、更清洁的增长（英）-2023.10-152页_2mb

South Asia Development Update: Toward Faster, Cleaner Growth (October 2023)

Core Content

This report provides an analysis of the economic and development outlook for South Asia, focusing on growth, fiscal sustainability, the energy transition, and labor market impacts. It highlights the region's progress and challenges in achieving faster and more sustainable development, emphasizing the need for strategic policy interventions to support long-term growth and job creation.

Main Findings

• Economic Growth: South Asia is projected to grow at just under 6% in 2023-25, which is faster than any other emerging market and developing economy (EMDE) region. However, this growth is a slowdown from pre-pandemic averages.
• Fiscal Challenges: The region faces fragile fiscal positions, with government debt averaging 86% of GDP in 2022, the highest among EMDE regions. Fiscal deterioration is common around election periods, with primary deficits and wage bills increasing, which can undermine long-term fiscal sustainability.
• Energy Transition: South Asian economies are energy-intensive, using twice as much energy per unit of output as the global average. The region has adopted basic energy-saving technologies but lags in the adoption of advanced energy-efficient technologies. Accelerating the energy transition is crucial for productivity, pollution reduction, and reducing reliance on fuel imports.
• Labor Market Impacts: The shift from fossil fuels to sustainable energy could lead to job losses in pollution-intensive sectors, particularly affecting lower-skilled and informal workers. Green jobs, on the other hand, are more likely to be held by higher-skilled, better-paid, and formal-sector workers. This transition will require policies to support job creation and worker mobility.
• Policy Priorities: To ensure sustainable growth, the region must focus on boosting private investment, restoring fiscal sustainability, accelerating the energy transition, and maintaining a healthy labor market through education, training, and social safety nets.

Key Policy Recommendations

• Boost Private Investment: Improve infrastructure, the institutional and business environment, and access to credit. Remove market distortions to encourage investment.
• Restore Fiscal Sustainability: Increase revenues, improve spending efficiency, and implement stronger fiscal rules. Avoid excessive borrowing from domestic creditors, which can raise borrowing costs and reduce private sector credit.
• Speed the Energy Transition: Encourage the adoption of advanced energy-efficient technologies through market-based regulations, accurate information dissemination, and financial support.
• Maintain a Healthy Labor Market: Support worker mobility and provide education and training opportunities. Strengthen social safety nets to protect vulnerable workers during the transition.

Regional Outlook

• Growth Prospects: Despite some progress, growth in South Asia is expected to remain below pre-pandemic levels. Countries recovering from balance-of-payments crises show weak growth, which could worsen if China's economic slowdown or climate-related disasters intensify.
• Inflation: Inflation remains elevated in South Asia compared to the global average, driven by high global food prices and local supply disruptions. While inflation is expected to decline as currencies stabilize and import controls are relaxed, it could be interrupted by further commodity price increases or persistent inflationary pressures.
• Financial Conditions: Financial systems in the region remain vulnerable due to limited capital buffers and high exposure to sovereign debt. Central banks' efforts to reduce inflation have increased borrowing costs and depreciation pressures.

Country-Specific Insights

• India: Shows strong performance in reducing energy intensity within firms, but still faces challenges in the labor market as the energy transition progresses.
• Bangladesh: Has seen some progress in energy efficiency, but smaller firms lag in adopting advanced technologies.
• Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka: Are in acute crisis, with growth rates below the regional average and high fiscal risks.

Methodology and Supporting Evidence

• The report uses data up to September 25, 2023, and includes various analyses such as regression studies, event studies, and meta-regressions.
• Case studies and literature reviews are used to support the findings on fiscal cycles, energy efficiency, and labor market transitions.

Conclusion

The path to prosperity for South Asia requires sustained high growth, supported by sound fiscal and monetary policies, and a strategic approach to the energy transition. The region has the potential to achieve faster and cleaner growth, but this will depend on effective policy implementation and investment in sustainable development.