2023-09-22-牛津经济研究院-物流_为英国生产力难题提供解决方案_69页_3mb

Logistics: Delivering a Solution to the UK’s Productivity Puzzle
Commissioned by Logistics UK, sponsored by Amazon and Volvo Trucks | Oxford Economics 2023

Key Findings & Summary

1. UK Productivity Challenge

• UK productivity growth has slowed since the 2007 financial crisis, significantly lagging G7 peers.
• Output per worker and GDP per hour worked are among the lowest in the G7, with living standards stagnating.
• Restoring productivity growth is a policy priority to boost economic output and living standards.

2. Role of Logistics

• Logistics is a cornerstone of the UK economy:
  • Economic Contribution: £163 billion (7.2% of GDP in 2021), supporting 2.7M jobs (8.2% of workforce).
  • Supply-Side Impact: Efficiency gains in logistics reduce costs, improve supply chains, drive innovation, and enhance competitiveness.
  • Multiplier Effect: Logistics demand sustains significant economic activity across other sectors, with a UK multiplier of ~3x (supply-chain & wage effects).

3. Logistics Performance Decline

• Since 2014, the UK’s World Bank Logistics Performance Index (LPI) ranking plummeted to joint-19th, reflecting:
  • Poor timeliness, infrastructure quality, and customs efficiency.
  • Brexit-related border friction, reduced infrastructure investment (UK spends ~0.4% of GDP on transport vs. comparable peers).
• A one-point increase in LPI improves productivity by 0.12% in the short term and 0.45% in the long term.

4. Economic Opportunity

• Improving logistics performance could significantly boost productivity:
  • Scenario 1: Return to Top-10 LPI ranking by 2025: +0.13% productivity = £3.9B GDP increase, funding ~20,000 NHS salaries.
  • Scenario 2: Become Global Logistics Leader by 2025: +0.27% productivity = £7.9B GDP increase, funding ~40,000 NHS salaries.
• This opportunity requires:
  • Public-Private Partnership: Collaboration on infrastructure, customs reforms, skills, and innovation.
  • Skills & Net-Zero Transition: Training for green logistics technologies (EVs, hydrogen) and addressing technical workforce gaps.

5. Challenges & Recommendations

• Decarbonization: Logistics must reduce emissions (GHG from transport ~113 Mt CO2e/year), requiring £50B+ investment.
  • Challenges: Insufficient EV charging infrastructure, high transition costs.
• Policy Imperatives:
  • Increase infrastructure investment (0.8% GDP target needed).
  • Streamline customs processes post-Brexit.
  • Support skills development through initiatives like Generation Logistics.

6. Case Study Highlights

• Amazon & Volvo Trucks: Leading EV adoption in logistics, investing in charging infrastructure.
• Asda & DPD: Deploying bio-gas/HGV fleets, robot deliveries, and solar-powered refrigeration.
• Generation Logistics: Careers campaign attracting ~460M audience to build sector talent pipeline.

Conclusion

Logistics is pivotal to resolving the UK’s productivity puzzle. A strategic partnership between government and industry, backed by infrastructure, technological innovation, and workforce development, can position the UK as a global logistics leader while driving sustainable economic growth.