2024-09-01-世界银行-公共投资质量及其对主权风险和债务可持续性的影响（英）_50页_2mb

Public Investment Quality Index (PIQ)

• Construction: Based on World Bank project performance evaluations (IEG ratings) for 120 EMDEs (2000-2021). Measures de facto project outcomes after controlling for GDP, growth, implementation time, agreement type, and sector characteristics.
• Key Features:
  • PIQ-F: Static cross-sectional index.
  • PIQ-D and PIQ-Q: Dynamic time-varying indices.
• Findings:
  • Low-income countries (LICs) and commodity-exporters have lower PIQ.
  • Gap between LICs/non-exporters and other EMDEs widened over time.
  • Strong regional heterogeneity (e.g., Sub-Saharan Africa and Middle East lag others).

Implications for Sovereign Risk and Debt Sustainability

• Effect of Public Investment Quality:
  • High PIQ: Public investment reduces sovereign risk and improves debt sustainability through higher growth, lower borrowing costs, and self-financing effects.
  • Low PIQ: Public investment increases sovereign risk and deteriorates fiscal fundamentals via reduced growth, higher maintenance costs, and fiscal strains.
• Non-Investment Grade Countries:
  • PIQ significantly mediates the relationship between public investment and sovereign risk, absent in investment-grade countries.
• Mechanism:
  • High PIQ enables public investment to "fund itself"; low PIQ reduces debt-to-GDP ratios over time.

Policy Recommendations

• Enhance PIQ Assessment: Integrate PIQ into sovereign risk analyses and debt sustainability frameworks.
• Support for Low-PIQ Countries:
  • Strengthen public investment management (PIMA frameworks).
  • Improve fiscal policies and debt frameworks.
  • Increase concessional funding from creditors and development partners.
• Global Cooperation: Coordinate efforts to address LICs' constraints (fiscal space, access to capital).