世界银行-气候相关冲击与财政可持续性：潜在影响和政策选择（英）-2023-57页_1mb

Cabo Verde Economic Update Summary

Climate-Related Shocks and Fiscal Sustainability

Economic Overview (Recent Developments)

• GDP Growth: Expanded 17.7% in 2022, surpassing pre-pandemic levels, driven primarily by tourism and private consumption. Poverty decreased slightly to 19.3%, but inflation reached 7.9% due to high global fuel and food prices.
• Fiscal Position: Fiscal deficit narrowed to 4.1% of GDP in 2022, supported by increased revenues. Public debt declined to 120.9% of GDP, but risks from state-owned enterprises (SOEs) remain.
• External Sector: Current Account Deficit narrowed to 3.4% of GDP, aided by tourism recovery and remittances.

Climate Impacts and Fiscal Risks

• Natural disasters, especially floods, pose significant threats to growth and debt sustainability. High climate risk exposure could lead to GDP losses affecting fiscal balances.
• Stress tests show that rare catastrophic floods could push public debt above risk thresholds, delaying debt reduction by 1-14 years under baseline scenarios.

Policy Recommendations

1. Revenue Mobilization: Implement tax reforms, revoke ineffective incentives, and adopt ECOWAS tariffs to boost domestic revenue.
2. Debt Management: Restrict non-concessional borrowing and reduce direct support to SOEs. Enhance fiscal transparency to manage contingent liabilities.
3. Growth Diversification: Support complementary sectors to reduce tourism dependency and foster innovation in local businesses.
4. Climate Resilience: Invest in climate-adapted infrastructure, promote rule-based disaster financing (e.g., Catastrophe Deferred Drawdown Options), and integrate climate risks into fiscal planning.

For detailed sections including full fiscal data, flood impact estimates, and specific policy timelines, refer to the complete report.