2025-01-19-世界银行-缅甸经济监测_2024年12月_加剧危机-特别关注_来自缅甸的国际移民（英）_74页_2mb

报告摘要

Economic conditions have deteriorated significantly in 2024, driven by multiple crises including conflict, flooding, and policy restrictions. GDP is projected to contract by 1%, while inflation is expected to remain high, averaging 26% for the year.
Key economic indicators show a decline in firm operations, with 63% of surveyed firms operating below capacity in September/October 2024. Shortages of inputs and high power costs are major constraints.
Living standards have been severely impacted, with 14.3 million people experiencing acute food insecurity. Migration has become a coping mechanism, but irregular channels and expeditious challenges hinder full benefits.
Macroeconomic policies aimed at stabilizing exchange rates and controlling inflation have led to negative side effects, including reduced trade and increased informal migration.
Strengthened policies in destination countries, such as better alignment of migration pathways with labor demand, could enhance economic outcomes for migrants and Myanmar's economy.

Shocks: Economic activity has been severely hampered by conflict, flooding (e.g., Typhoon Yagi), high inflation, and import restrictions. Key areas like agriculture and manufacturing are facing significant declines.
Trade and Currency: The kyat experienced a 40% depreciation against the USD in 2024, leading to higher import costs and shortages. Imports declined sharply, reducing the trade deficit but straining domestic supply chains.
Fiscal Pressures: The budget deficit is expected to widen to 5.8% of GDP, driven by increased spending and reduced revenue in some sectors. Public debt remains high at approximately 62% of GDP.
Sectoral Impacts: Agriculture has been hit hard by flooding, with crop production expected to decline. Manufacturing and services are facing slow recovery due to input shortages and weak domestic demand.
Inflation: Headline inflation, driven by food and fuel price increases, reached an average of 26% this year. Supply chain disruptions, exchange rate volatility, and policy rates explain much of the persistent high inflation.

Economic Growth: GDP is expected to remain subdued next year at around 2% growth, despite a gradual pick-up, mainly due to ongoing constraints in productive sectors.
Inflation: Inflation is projected to increase to about 30% in 2025, fueled by supply shortages, exchange rate fluctuations, and continued policy interventions.
Risks: Further conflict or natural disasters could deepen economic contraction and increase inflationary pressures. Additional trade or foreign exchange restrictions could severely impact business confidence and operations.
Exposco exchange integration: Migration reforms in destination countries, improved labor demand matching, and streamlined migration processes could reduce risks associated with human capital outflows.

Migration from Myanmar: Destinations remain concentrated, with Thailand as the top choice (55.8% of migrants). Many migrants earn 1–3 times more abroad, but one-third receive wages below the minimum and face adverse conditions.
Challenges: High migration costs, restrictive policies, and irregular channels limit potential gains. Outflows of high-skilled workers exacerbate skills shortages in Myanmar.
Need for Policy Adjustments: Aligning migration policies with market demand, digitizing processes and enhancing integration of refugees would improve economic outcomes and human capital retention.

Despite migration offering significant personal and economic benefits, increased distress-induced migration and policy distortions have lowered net gains.
Recommendations include extending labor contract periods, easing job mobility, and enhancing legal protections to mitigate irregular migration risks and foster better economic integration.

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