战略与国际研究中心-The-Gulf-Military-Balance-in-2019--A-Graphic-Analysis_111页_5mb

Summary of The Gulf Military Balance in 2019: A Graphic Analysis

Core Content

The Gulf region in 2019 experienced a complex and increasingly unstable military balance due to the interplay of conventional forces, asymmetric warfare, regional tensions, and external influences. This report highlights the evolving dynamics of military power, the impact of nuclear and chemical weapons proliferation, and the vulnerabilities of key infrastructure and populations.

Main Points and Key Information

1. Regional Instability and Conflicts

• Civil Violence and Extremism: The Gulf region is marked by rising civil protests and extremist violence, particularly in countries ranked 160–200 in political stability. These include Syria, Iraq, Yemen, and others, where ISIS and related groups continue to pose a threat.
• Sectarian and Ethnic Divisions: The region is divided along sectarian and ethnic lines, with significant tensions between Shia and Sunni populations. These divisions have influenced internal conflicts and regional alliances.
• Proxy Conflicts and Asymmetric Threats: Proxy wars, especially in Iraq and Syria, are a major source of instability. Iran's support for groups like Hezbollah and the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) in Iraq has been a key factor.
• Yemen War: The conflict in Yemen has increased Iran's influence in the region and created challenges for Saudi and UAE military cooperation.

2. Military Capabilities and Spending

• Arab Gulf States vs. Iran: Arab Gulf states significantly outspend Iran on military budgets and have better access to modern military technology. However, this spending is a burden on their economies.
• Comparative Military Budgets (2018):
  • Saudi Arabia: $67.5 billion
  • UAE: $24 billion
  • Bahrain: $1.3 billion
  • Kuwait: $5.9 billion
  • Qatar: Data unavailable
  • Iran: $13.1 billion
• Arms Imports:
  • Arab Gulf states placed $199.7 billion in arms orders between 2008–2015, compared to Iran's $900 million.
  • The U.S. remains the dominant external military power in the region, despite recent force reductions and debates over burden-sharing.

3. Key Military Components

• Nuclear Forces: Iran's nuclear proliferation is a significant regional concern.
• Missile Forces: Iran has developed a strong missile arsenal, including precision-guided missiles, which it uses to compensate for its limited airpower. Arab states rely heavily on air power and advanced surface-to-air defense systems.
• Land Forces: Iran has parity or possible superiority in land forces, but lacks the capability for long-range maneuver or amphibious operations. Kuwait is particularly vulnerable.
• Naval Forces: Arab states have superior naval capabilities with modern surface vessels, but face readiness and interoperability issues. Iran has an advantage in anti-ship missiles and asymmetric warfare.

4. Vulnerabilities and Risks

• Petroleum and Infrastructure: Both Iran and Arab Gulf states are highly vulnerable to attacks on critical infrastructure, particularly in the Strait of Hormuz. Any conflict in this area would have severe economic consequences.
• Internal Tensions: Political instability, economic challenges, and lack of integrated defense systems reduce the effectiveness of Arab military superiority.
• Failed States: Countries like Iraq, Syria, and Yemen contribute to regional instability through internal conflict and extremist activity.

5. External Influences

• Russia and Turkey: Their growing involvement adds to regional instability.
• China: Its influence is increasing, though less pronounced than that of the U.S.
• U.S. Role: The U.S. is heavily involved in the region, particularly through its military presence and support for Arab states, but its focus on linking sanctions to Iran's military activities has raised concerns.

6. The Islamic State (ISIS) and Related Groups

• ISIS Activity: Despite the defeat of its physical "Caliphate," ISIS continues to conduct attacks in Iraq and Syria. It is estimated that there are still 30,000–37,000 jihadist fighters in the region.
• Al-Qaeda Affiliated Groups: Groups like Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham and Tanzim Hurras al-Din are also active and have links to Iran and al-Qaeda.
• Prison Escapes: There is a risk of more fighters entering the conflict after being released from prisons, especially in areas like al-Hol in Syria.

Conclusion

The Gulf region's military balance is shaped by a combination of high military spending, asymmetric warfare, and external interventions. While Arab states have significant conventional military advantages, internal divisions, lack of integrated defense systems, and economic constraints limit their effectiveness. Iran's influence through proxy forces and asymmetric capabilities remains a critical threat, and the region's vulnerability to attacks on critical infrastructure underscores the high stakes of potential conflict. The presence of extremist groups and failed states further complicates the security landscape, making the Gulf a highly unstable and complex military theater.