战略与国际研究中心-Trends-in-the-Military-Balance-and-Arms-Sales-in-the-Southern-Gulf-States-After-the-Gulf-War_-1990_167页_595kb

Summary of Trends in the Military Balance and Arms Sales in the Southern Gulf States After the Gulf War: 1990-1993

Core Content

This document analyzes the military balance and arms sales trends among the Southern Gulf States (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE) in the period following the Gulf War (1990-1993). It explores the strategic needs, vulnerabilities, and the efforts of these states to build collective defense mechanisms, particularly through the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC).

Main Points

1. Strategic Challenges and Vulnerabilities

• All Southern Gulf States face threats from Iraq and Iran, and must develop deterrent and combat capabilities to counter these.
• They also need to resist ideological and political challenges to their conservative regimes.
• Internal security is a priority, especially due to border disputes and petty conflicts.
• External threats include potential involvement in the Arab-Israeli conflict, Islamic fundamentalism, and Yemen's instability.
• Dependence on Western military power (especially the U.S.) for security is both a strength and a vulnerability.

2. Military Capabilities and Limitations

• Despite collective resources, the military capabilities of the Southern Gulf States are limited.
• Small manpower pools, inadequate warning systems, weak command and control, and lack of combined operations experience hinder their effectiveness.
• Naval and air defense capabilities are generally underdeveloped, and combined arms operations are poorly executed.
• The GCC has made limited progress in military cooperation, with inadequate standardization and interoperability between member states.

3. Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and Collective Security

• The GCC was formed in 1981 to address shared threats from Iran and Iraq.
• It has made symbolic contributions during the Gulf War, such as logistical support and token military participation.
• However, real military cooperation has been minimal, with disputes over force structure, resource sharing, and intelligence agreements.
• The Damascus Declaration (1991) was a symbolic commitment to collective security, but practical implementation was lacking.

4. Military Development of Saudi Arabia

• Saudi Arabia is the largest and most powerful Southern Gulf state, with a large land area and significant military resources.
• However, its military manpower is relatively low compared to its size, and it faces challenges in defense coverage.
• The Gulf War highlighted the need for air power and the importance of U.S. support.
• Saudi Arabia has modernized its military using U.S. assistance, and gradually improved its capabilities.

5. Arms Imports and Expenditures

• The defense spending and arms imports of the Southern Gulf States are relatively low compared to their potential threats.
• Saudi Arabia has increased arms imports over time, particularly in the late 1980s and early 1990s, to enhance its deterrence and combat capabilities.
• Other states, such as Kuwait, have also increased defense spending, but their military capabilities remain limited.

6. Strategic Importance of the Southern Gulf States

• The problem of vulnerability may be the solution to achieving strategic stability in the Gulf.
• The GCC needs to improve military cooperation, standardization, and interoperability to be effective.
• Collective defense is essential, but political rivalries and lack of coordination continue to hinder progress.

Key Information

• Table VII-1 summarizes the size, population, GDP, defense spending, and military capabilities of the Southern Gulf States and their main threats (Iran and Iraq) in 1993.
• Saudi Arabia is the central player in regional defense, but its manpower and resource allocation are insufficient for full-scale defense.
• GCC efforts have been symbolic rather than substantive, with limited progress in military standardization and common defense structures.
• Arms imports and defense spending are critical for building deterrence and combat capabilities, but military effectiveness remains low due to technical and organizational limitations.

Conclusion

The Southern Gulf States, despite their geographic and economic significance, face major strategic and military challenges. The GCC has the potential to enhance regional security, but political fragmentation and lack of coordination have limited its effectiveness. Saudi Arabia remains the key actor in the region, but its military limitations and dependence on external powers highlight the need for greater regional integration and modernization.