战略与国际研究中心-Recent-Military-Developments-in-the-Persian-Gulf_78页_276kb

Summary of Recent Military Developments in the Persian Gulf (1998)

Core Content

This report by Anthony H. Cordesman analyzes the changes in the military balance of the Persian Gulf since the Gulf War, focusing on the evolving capabilities of Iraq, Iran, and the Southern Gulf states. It also highlights the impact of arms transfers, economic conditions, and political dynamics on the region's security posture.

Main Points

1. Changes in the Military Balance

• Iraq: After the Gulf War, Iraq's military capabilities were significantly reduced. It lost about half of its land and air force strength and has not been able to import advanced arms or technology since 1990. Its WMD programs (missiles, chemical, biological, and nuclear) have been dismantled by international inspections, though it continues to pursue nuclear capabilities in secret.
• Iran: Iran has partially recovered from its defeat in the Iran-Iraq War and is now a major military power in the Gulf. It has focused on unconventional warfare and has developed capabilities to threaten shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. However, its military spending and arms imports have declined compared to the war period.
• Southern Gulf States: These states have not effectively coordinated their military efforts. They have continued to purchase arms with a focus on "glitter factor" and new technology rather than interoperability and sustainable force development. Their military planning remains politically driven and fragmented.

2. Arms Transfers and Military Expenditures

• The flow of arms to the Gulf has not ended, but the nature of these transfers has changed.
• Iraq: Has had no major arms imports since 1990, and its military expenditures have dropped to about 1/10 of their pre-war level.
• Iran: Military expenditures have dropped to about 1/3 of their Iran-Iraq War level, and arms imports to 1/5 to 1/4.
• Southern Gulf: Military expenditures and arms imports have decreased, but the region still maintains a high level of arms purchases, primarily by Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and the UAE.

3. Trends in Arms Purchases

• Southern Gulf: These states have continued to buy arms from a wide range of suppliers without a unified strategy. This has led to a lack of standardization and interoperability.
• Deliveries: The trend of arms deliveries in the Southern Gulf has been influenced by the backlog of previous orders, leading to a surge in deliveries even as new orders declined.
• Saudi Arabia: The largest arms buyer in the region, with significant reductions in new orders due to economic constraints, but continued high deliveries due to prior commitments.

4. Political and Economic Factors

• The Gulf states have not made substantial progress in addressing structural economic problems and political divisions, which have contributed to internal extremism and civil unrest.
• The lack of a unified threat has prevented collective action for reform and regional security cooperation.
• The political instability in Iran, particularly with the rise of moderates and traditionalists, has created uncertainty about its future military posture and relations with the West.

5. Military Technology and the "Revolution in Military Affairs"

• A technological arms race has been triggered by the Gulf War, but it lacks cohesion and consistency.
• The Southern Gulf states have not fully embraced the "revolution in military affairs" and continue to prioritize individual national capabilities over joint operations.
• The US has remained a key player in the region, with prepositioned forces and training programs, but its reliance on the Gulf states for support has created dependency and concerns about cost-effectiveness.

6. Proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMDs)

• The Gulf War and "dual containment" have slowed the WMD race, but "creeping proliferation" is still a concern.
• Iraq has attempted to preserve its WMD capabilities and develop a breakout potential, while Iran is actively pursuing long-range missiles and nuclear weapons.
• The Southern Gulf states have not shown significant interest in WMDs, though some are exploring theater missile defense and civil defense options.

Key Information

• Military Capabilities: Iraq and Iran remain significant military powers, but both have been weakened by the Gulf War and international sanctions.
• Arms Purchases: The Southern Gulf states continue to buy arms, but their purchases lack strategic focus and interoperability.
• Economic Constraints: Southern Gulf states face economic and budgetary challenges, which have limited their ability to modernize effectively.
• Political Dynamics: Iran's internal political shifts and the lack of unity among Southern Gulf states have impacted their military development and regional security.
• US Influence: The US remains a major military presence in the region, but its influence is increasingly questioned due to the Gulf states' reliance on it and the potential for future instability.

Conclusion

The Gulf region has not seen the end of history, and the military balance remains in flux. While US strength and the weakened positions of Iraq and Iran contribute to a relatively stable deterrence, the lack of regional cooperation and the ongoing arms race pose long-term security risks. The Southern Gulf states need to focus on strategic purchasing, interoperability, and sustainability rather than pursuing a "glitter factor" in military technology. The report underscores the importance of addressing both military and political challenges to ensure long-term stability in the region.