国际战略研究中心-拜登治下的美国与中俄的竞争：危机驱动下的美国战略改变需求（英文）-2021.1-211页_8mb

Summary of "The Biden Transition and U.S. Competition with China and Russia: The Crisis-Driven Need to Change U.S. Strategy"

Core Content

This document provides an in-depth analysis of the United States' approach to strategic competition with China and Russia, emphasizing the need for a comprehensive, integrated strategy that moves beyond traditional military confrontation. It highlights the inadequacies of the current U.S. strategy, which is overly focused on worst-case scenarios and nuclear deterrence, while neglecting the broader forms of competition that occur in the gray zone, hybrid warfare, and through civil and economic means.

Main Points of the Document

1. The Need for a New Strategic Approach

• The U.S. must reassess its approach to competition with China and Russia.
• Current strategy emphasizes direct military confrontation and nuclear deterrence, but this is not the central focus of long-term competition.
• The U.S. needs to address the full spectrum of competition, including civil, economic, and hybrid forms.

2. Focus on Gray Zone and Hybrid Warfare

• Most military competition with China and Russia occurs in the gray zone, which includes non-military operations such as cyber warfare, economic coercion, and information campaigns.
• The U.S. must develop strategies for gray zone operations, which are often indirect and involve irregular tactics.
• The U.S. should not prioritize major conventional combat with Russia and China, as most conflicts will be at lower levels or non-combat.

3. Importance of Civil and Economic Competition

• Civil and economic competition is as significant, if not more, than military competition.
• China and Russia integrate civil and military strategies to achieve their goals, including through trade, investment, and technology.
• The U.S. must respond with a whole-of-government approach, combining military and economic assessments.

4. Global Nature of the Competition

• The U.S. must compete globally, as China and Russia often target U.S. allies and partners.
• Strategic partnerships are crucial for deterrence and defense against escalation to major conflicts or nuclear war.
• The U.S. needs to maintain strong forces in key regions and ensure interoperability with allies.

5. Strategic Partnerships and Interoperability

• The U.S. should build and strengthen strategic partnerships, not just in the Indo-Pacific, but globally.
• These partnerships are essential for countering Chinese and Russian influence and promoting global cooperation.
• The U.S. must develop interoperable conventional forces capable of joint, multi-domain operations.

6. Integration of Military and Civil Strategy

• The U.S. needs to integrate military and civil strategy to address the full scope of competition.
• The document stresses the importance of net assessments that evaluate all areas of competition together.
• Public information and open-source reporting are vital for understanding and countering the threats posed by gray zone operations.

7. Economic and Technological Competition

• Economic competition is a major factor in the strategic rivalry with China and Russia.
• The U.S. must address the impact of China's economic model and its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
• The U.S. should also focus on its own economic and technological capabilities, including STEM education and R&D investment.

8. Nuclear Deterrence and Modernization

• Nuclear deterrence remains a critical element, but it is not the sole focus.
• The U.S. must modernize its nuclear forces and ensure mutual assured destruction (MAD) remains effective.
• The document warns of the risks of nuclear war and the need for arms control and risk management.

9. Underreporting of Chinese and Russian Military Spending

• China and Russia underreport their military spending, making it difficult to assess their capabilities.
• The U.S. must account for this underreporting and understand the economic burden it places on these countries.

10. The Role of Information Warfare and Public Diplomacy

• Information warfare and public diplomacy are key tools in countering Chinese and Russian influence.
• The U.S. should expose their covert and overt activities, including those involving third countries and non-state actors.
• Effective public communication is necessary to build awareness and counter disinformation.

11. Strategic Priorities and Implementation

• The U.S. must develop strategy-driven plans, programs, and budgets that reflect the new challenges of the industrial age and the aftermath of the Coronavirus crisis.
• It should focus on using existing resources and allies more effectively.
• The U.S. must be prepared for long-term economic and technological competition with both China and Russia.

Key Information

• The U.S. strategy should be broader and more integrated, covering all domains of competition.
• China and Russia are using a mix of civil, economic, and military tactics to expand their influence.
• The U.S. must focus on building and maintaining strong alliances and partnerships.
• Effective competition requires a whole-of-government approach, including military, economic, and diplomatic elements.
• The U.S. should not ignore the gray zone and hybrid warfare, which are becoming more prevalent.
• Public information and open-source reporting are essential for transparency and strategic awareness.

Conclusion

• The U.S. needs to move beyond a narrow, military-centric strategy to address the full scope of competition with China and Russia.
• A more comprehensive, integrated, and global approach is required to ensure U.S. security and prosperity in the long term.
• The U.S. must develop plans and budgets that reflect the strategic priorities of the new era, including economic and technological competition, as well as the need for global cooperation and strategic partnerships.