LOWY-危机后的危机：拉达克将如何塑造印度与中国的竞争（英文）-2021.5-48页_2mb

Summary of The Crisis after the Crisis: How Ladakh will Shape India's Competition with China

Core Content

The document analyzes the impact of the 2020 Ladakh border crisis on India's strategic competition with China. It outlines how the crisis has shifted the geopolitical and military dynamics between the two countries, leading to a more hostile political relationship and increased militarization of the Line of Actual Control (LAC). The crisis, which involved multiple Chinese incursions and a deadly skirmish in the Galwan Valley, has created a new strategic reality that will affect India's long-term security and strategic posture.

Main Points

• Ladakh Crisis as a Strategic Shift: The 2020 crisis marked a significant turning point in India-China relations, resulting in a more adversarial political environment and a more militarized LAC.
• Unresolved Status Quo: Despite the February 2021 disengagement agreement, the situation has not returned to the pre-crisis status quo, and the LAC remains a source of tension.
• India's Strategic Dilemma: The crisis has forced India to divert resources from maritime expansion and military modernization in the Indian Ocean, which are critical for countering China's growing influence in the region.
• China's Advantage: China has incurred only marginal costs from the crisis, with its better-resourced military able to absorb the strain, while India faces greater political and operational challenges.
• Military Rebalancing: The Indian Army has begun a significant rebalancing of forces, re-tasking units to focus more on the LAC, including the conversion of I Corps to a mountain infantry formation. This shift reduces India's conventional military capability against Pakistan.
• Persistent Threats: The LAC is now more militarized and prone to violence, with both sides increasing their military presence and infrastructure. The Line of Control (LoC) in Kashmir also remains a source of conflict, creating the risk of a two-front war scenario.
• Limited Resources: India is unlikely to increase defense spending due to economic constraints, including the impact of the pandemic. This limits its ability to modernize and expand its maritime presence effectively.
• Strategic Implications: The crisis may lead to a "crisis after the crisis" in India's strategic competition with China, as the increased focus on the LAC comes at the expense of India's broader strategic interests in the Indian Ocean.

Key Findings

• The unresolved Ladakh crisis has created a new strategic reality for India, characterized by heightened political hostility and increased militarization of the LAC.
• India is likely to defer military modernization and maritime expansion due to the diversion of resources to the border.
• China, despite the crisis, has not suffered significant material or political costs, allowing it to maintain its strategic momentum.
• The disengagement plan may not fully resolve the issue, and the LAC will remain a contested and potentially volatile zone.
• The Indian Army is rebalancing its forces, shifting focus to the LAC and reducing its ability to project power in the Indian Ocean.
• The crisis risks deepening the strategic imbalance between India and China, with long-term implications for regional security and India's global standing.

Recommendations

• India should prioritize strategies of denial over punishment in its approach to China.
• It should impose political costs on China rather than material ones, by maintaining a firm stance on border issues and requiring verifiable commitments.
• India should accept more risk at the LAC in exchange for greater leverage in the Indian Ocean.
• The country must rebalance its military resources strategically, ensuring that its focus on the LAC does not undermine its broader maritime ambitions.
• India should strengthen its alliances with countries like Australia, Japan, and the United States to counterbalance China's influence in the Indian Ocean.

Conclusion

The Ladakh crisis has fundamentally altered the India-China strategic landscape. While it may end in disengagement, it has created a long-term challenge for India, forcing it to choose between reinforcing its land borders and pursuing its maritime ambitions. The document argues that India's response to this crisis will not only shape its strategic competition with China but also its role in the broader Indo-Pacific region.