2023-03-16-IMF-全球供应链中断_撒哈拉以南非洲通货膨胀和货币政策面临的挑战（英）_41页_1mb

Global Supply Chain Disruptions and Inflation in Sub-Saharan Africa

This study analyzes the impact of global supply chain disruptions on inflation and monetary policy in 29 Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries from 2000 to 2022. The Covid-19 pandemic caused significant supply chain disruptions, with the Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (GSCPI) peaking near 4.5 standard deviations above normal.

Key findings:

1. Inflation Impact: Supply chain shocks significantly increase headline, food, and tradable inflation. A one-standard-deviation GSCPI shock raises headline inflation by 0.41 pp five months post-shock and remains elevated for up to 14 months. Tradable inflation peaks at 0.49 pp increase five months after a shock. Food inflation shows high sensitivity, with a 0.54 pp increase five months post-shock.
2. Second-Round Effects: Disruptions also indirectly affect non-tradable inflation (0.2 pp) and inflation expectations over a longer period (up to seven months).
3. Contribution to Inflation Surge: Supply chain pressures contributed about 45% to headline inflation and 55% to tradable core inflation during 2020-22, reducing food price contribution further.

Implications for Monetary Policy:

• Open economies with high tradable consumption face amplified second-round effects. Central banks can stabilize inflation more effectively by monitoring supply chains pre-emptively and adjusting policy rates before full inflation transmission. This approach minimizes output losses by curbing inflation expectations early.
• Forward-looking policy helps stabilize both inflation and output gaps, especially in low-credibility systems where delays can lead to exacerbated inflation and economic instability.
• Cross-country heterogeneity (tradable share, policy credibility) influences the effectiveness of such adjustments.

Recommendations for SSA Countries:

• Strengthen monetary policy credibility and improve inflation expectations anchoring.
• Prioritize early responses to global supply chain shocks to mitigate second-round inflation effects.
• Balance policy trade-offs between inflation stabilization and output growth.