2015年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Georgia_First_Review_Under_the_Stand_61页_992kb

Georgia: First Review Under the Stand-By Arrangement and Request for Modification of a Performance Criterion

Core Content

This document outlines the first review under the Stand-By Arrangement (SBA) for Georgia, conducted by the IMF staff in late 2014. It evaluates the country's macroeconomic performance, outlines the outlook for 2015, and discusses key policy areas, including fiscal, monetary, and financial sector reforms. The review also includes a request to modify a performance criterion related to the NIR (Net International Reserves) target.

Main Points

1. Macroeconomic Performance

• Growth: In line with the program, with 2014 growth expected to reach 5 percent, supported by a strong base effect and increased government spending.
• Inflation: Remains below the central bank’s 6 percent target, at 3.5 percent year average, within the program's inner consultation band.
• Credit Growth: Increased, particularly for retail and SME loans, driven by lower lending rates and domestic currency loans. Loan dollarization is still high, at ~60 percent.
• Current Account Deficit: Widened in 2014, reaching 8.5 percent of GDP, due to stronger imports than exports. However, it is expected to decline in the medium term with fiscal consolidation and exchange rate flexibility.

2. Program Performance

• The program is on track, with all applicable performance criteria and the indicative target met.
• The fiscal deficit in the first nine months of 2014 was 1.1 percent of GDP, below the program target.
• The NIR target was met after the NBG's foreign exchange purchases in August, and the NDA target was comfortably achieved.
• The structural benchmark on access to finance was reset to December 2015 due to delays in preparing the study.

3. Outlook and Risks

• Growth: Projected to remain at 5 percent in 2015, with potential for 6 percent due to improved political stability and DCFTA implementation.
• Current Account Deficit: Expected to decline gradually to 5 percent of GDP by 2019, supported by fiscal consolidation, exchange rate flexibility, and competitiveness reforms.
• Downside Risks: Include regional tensions, potential slowdown in the EU and CIS, and the impact of the Russia-Ukraine crisis on exports and remittances.
• Upside Risks: Lower oil prices could reduce the current account deficit and inflation, and boost growth.

4. Key Policy Discussions

A. Fiscal Policy

• The 2014 budget deficit is expected to be slightly below the 3.7 percent of GDP target.
• Spending composition shifted from capital to current, with local governments exceeding spending plans due to the June elections.
• The government plans to raise excises on tobacco, alcohol, and international phone calls to fund increased social spending, including pensions and teacher salaries.
• The budget includes measures to improve targeting of social assistance and universal healthcare coverage.

B. Monetary and Exchange Rate Policy

• The National Bank of Georgia (NBG) has kept policy rates low, at 4 percent, due to inflation being below target.
• The lari has appreciated against the U.S. dollar and other currencies, raising concerns about competitiveness and inflation.
• The NBG has committed to inflation targeting and has lowered its 2017 inflation target to 4 percent.
• The NBG is improving its communication strategy, including regular press conferences and timely publication of inflation reports.
• A modification request for the NIR performance criterion was made, proposing an increase of US$35 million and a lower NDA target.

C. Financial Sector

• The banking sector is relatively resilient, with strong capital and liquidity ratios, though some weaknesses remain, especially in small banks.
• FSAP recommendations are being implemented to improve financial stability and supervision.
• A memorandum of understanding between the NBG and MOF aims to enhance crisis management and information sharing.
• Legal amendments are being considered to improve regulation and supervision, including guidelines for concentration risk under Basel III.

5. Structural Reforms

• A comprehensive study on access to finance is being conducted before establishing a development finance institution.
• The government is advancing structural reforms in several areas:
  • Tax administration: Includes abolition of the Alternative Audit program, legal amendments to access third-party information, and introduction of single taxpayer accounts.
  • Pension reform: In line with World Bank and ADB support, aiming to improve sustainability and targeting.
  • Deposit insurance: A structural benchmark for 2015, with the EU Association Agreement requiring it by 2020.

Key Information

• Program Modality: The SBA is on track, with SDR40 million becoming available upon completion of the review.
• IMF Mission: Conducted from October 15–28, 2014, and included meetings with key officials and representatives.
• Publications: Staff reports and other documents are available from the IMF Publication Services.
• Funding Sources: FDI and official loans are the main sources of external financing.
• Exchange Rate: The lari's appreciation raises concerns about competitiveness and inflation, though the NBG is committed to maintaining a floating exchange rate.

Conclusion

Georgia's economic performance aligns with the IMF program, with growth and inflation remaining within target ranges. However, challenges remain, particularly in terms of the current account deficit, exchange rate appreciation, and the need for structural reforms. The government is committed to implementing necessary changes and has requested a modification to the NIR performance criterion to support its fiscal and external adjustment goals. The review underscores the importance of continued fiscal discipline, monetary policy flexibility, and financial sector reforms to ensure long-term economic stability and growth.