20170613-USDA-USDA_Oil_Crops_Outlook_2017.06.13_13页_231kb

Oil Crops Outlook Summary (OCS-17f, June 13, 2017)

Core Content Overview

This report provides an analysis of the U.S. and global outlook for oil crops, including soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, cottonseed, cottonseed meal, cottonseed oil, and sunflowerseed, focusing on production, supply, and price trends for the 2016/17 and 2017/18 marketing years.

Main Points

U.S. Soybean Outlook

• Soybean Planting: Spring planting for 2017/18 is near completion, with 83% of the crop planted by June 4, slightly behind the 5-year average of 79%.

  • Western Corn Belt planting is ahead of average, while minor delays occur in the Eastern Corn Belt due to rain.
  • Midwestern soil moisture remains adequate, though a drier pattern is developing in the Northern Plains.
  • Soybean emergence is slightly behind average at 58% as of June 4, but may catch up with the warming trend in early June.
  • Projected 2017/18 sown acreage and production are unchanged at 4.255 billion bushels.

• Soybean Crush: USDA lowers the 2016/17 forecast of soybean crush by 15 million bushels to 1.91 billion due to weak domestic demand for soybean meal.

  • Domestic demand for soybean meal is forecast at 33.15 million short tons, down from 33.5 million.
  • The 2016/17 average price forecast for soybean meal is reduced to $315 per short ton from $320.
  • Export shipments of soybean meal slowed in May due to increased exports from Argentina and Brazil.

• Soybean Oil: The 2016/17 forecast for soybean oil production is reduced due to lower crush, but the market is not expected to tighten significantly.

  • Domestic use of soybean oil is down nearly 3% compared to the previous year.
  • Food use of soybean oil is forecast at 19.9 billion pounds, down from 20.2 billion in 2015/16.
  • The decline in food use is being partially offset by gains in other oils, particularly canola oil.

Global Soybean Outlook

• Production: Global soybean production for 2016/17 is forecast at 351.3 million metric tons, up 3.3 million from the previous month.
  • Brazil's production is raised by 2.4 million tons to 114 million.
  • Argentina's production is increased by 0.8 million tons to 57.8 million.
• Ending Stocks: Global ending stocks for 2016/17 are expected to reach 93.2 million metric tons, up from 90.1 million.
  • Season-ending U.S. soybean stocks for 2016/17 are forecast at 450 million bushels, a 10-year high.
  • For 2017/18, ending stocks are forecast at 495 million bushels, up from 480 million, due to higher beginning stocks.

International Outlook

• Brazil:

  • The 2016/17 harvest is nearly complete, with record exports of 62.4 million tons.
  • Farmers have marketed a lower-than-usual percentage of the harvest and may increase sales if U.S. production faces difficulties or if the Brazilian currency depreciates.
  • Season-ending stocks are forecast at 25 million tons, up from 23.2 million.

• Argentina:

  • The 2016/17 harvest is 89% complete, with improved yields due to favorable rainfall.
  • Production is forecast at 57.8 million tons, up from 57 million.
  • Exports are forecast at 8.5 million tons, down from 9 million.
  • Crush is forecast at 45 million tons, up from 44.8 million.
  • Farmers may defer sales until January when export taxes are reduced.

• EU Rapeseed:

  • A rebound in production is expected in 2017/18 due to increased sown area and improved yields.
  • However, dry conditions in April and May, especially in Germany, may limit new-crop yields.
  • USDA lowers the 2017/18 forecast for EU rapeseed production by 200,000 tons to 21.1 million.
  • The crush is also forecast to decline by 200,000 tons to 23.8 million.

• Ukraine Sunflowerseed:

  • Global sunflowerseed output for 2017/18 is forecast at 46.6 million tons, a record.
  • Ukraine's planting is nearly complete, with an increase in area by 200,000 hectares to 6.2 million.
  • New-crop production is forecast at 14 million tons, up by 500,000 tons.
  • Crush is expected to rise by 500,000 tons to 13.6 million tons.
  • Exports are forecast to increase by 200,000 tons to 5.2 million tons.
  • Ukraine's sunflowerseed oil may substitute for a tighter supply of EU rapeseed oil, with EU imports forecast to rise by 100,000 tons to 1.6 million tons.

Key Information

• Price Trends:

  • U.S. soybean meal prices have declined, impacting demand.
  • Current cash prices for soybeans have fallen below $9.00 per bushel, though a large portion of the 2016/17 crop has already been sold at a higher level.
  • USDA maintains unchanged price forecasts for 2016/17 and 2017/18.

• Supply and Demand:

  • U.S. soybean crush and oil use are both expected to decrease in 2016/17 due to lower demand.
  • Global soybean production is increasing due to improved yields in Brazil and Argentina, leading to higher global ending stocks.
  • Season-ending stocks in the U.S. for 2016/17 are at a 10-year high, which may affect prices and exports.

• Forecast Adjustments:

  • USDA revised its forecasts for soybean crush, production, and ending stocks based on updated data.
  • Similar adjustments are made for soybean oil, with a reduction in food use and a forecast for gains in other oils.
  • Argentina's exports are forecast to decrease slightly due to increased export competition from Brazil.
  • Ukraine's sunflowerseed production and exports are expected to increase, potentially affecting EU markets.

• Regional Impacts:

  • EU rapeseed production is expected to rebound, but dry conditions may temper gains.
  • Brazil and Argentina's harvests are contributing to global supply, with Brazil's exports hitting a record in May.
  • Ukraine's favorable weather and increased planting area are leading to a record sunflowerseed production.

Tables Summary

• Table 1: Shows U.S. soybean supply and disappearance for the years 2015/16, 2016/17, and 2017/18, including planting, yield, production, imports, and ending stocks.
• Table 2: Details U.S. soybean meal supply and disappearance, including beginning stocks, production, imports, and ending stocks.
• Table 3: Provides U.S. soybean oil supply and disappearance data, highlighting changes in domestic and export use.
• Table 4: Outlines U.S. cottonseed supply and disappearance, including production, imports, and ending stocks.
• Table 5: Summarizes U.S. cottonseed meal supply and disappearance, with forecasts for domestic and export use.
• Table 6: Shows U.S. cottonseed oil supply and disappearance, including domestic and export use.
• Table 7: Details U.S. peanut supply and disappearance, with projections for production and use.
• Table 8: Lists prices received by U.S. farmers for various oil crops, including soybeans, cottonseed, sunflowerseed, canola, peanuts, and flaxseed, with data for multiple marketing years.

Conclusion

The report highlights the impact of improved crop conditions in South America on U.S. soybean meal and oil prices, with a notable decrease in demand and an increase in global supply. It also forecasts record production in Ukraine for sunflowerseed and potential adjustments in EU rapeseed outlook due to dry conditions. The data underscores the dynamic nature of global oil crop markets, influenced by both production and demand factors.