20150814-USDA-USDA_Oil_Crops_Outlook（2015-08-14）_13页_267kb

Oil Crops Outlook Summary

Core Content

This report provides an overview of the outlook for oil crops in the U.S. and globally for the 2015/16 marketing year, focusing on production, exports, domestic use, and market prices. It highlights the impact of weather conditions, exchange rates, and international competition on the supply and demand dynamics of key oil crops such as soybeans, peanuts, and canola.

Main Points

U.S. Soybean Outlook

• Production:

  • Forecast at 3.916 billion bushels for 2015/16, up 31 million bushels from the previous forecast.
  • Higher yields (46.9 bushels per acre) offset lower harvested acreage (84.3 million acres).
  • The U.S. soybean crop is slightly ahead of usual development, with 63% rated in good-to-excellent condition as of August 9.

• Exports:

  • Forecast at 1.725 billion bushels for 2015/16, down 50 million bushels from the previous forecast.
  • Export sales commitments as of August 6 totaled 356 million bushels, indicating a weak sales pace.
  • Stronger U.S. dollar and abundant soybean supplies in Brazil and Argentina are contributing to the lower export demand.

• Domestic Use:

  • Domestic crush is forecast at 1.86 billion bushels, up 20 million bushels from the previous forecast.
  • Increased demand for soybean meal, especially in the hog industry, supports domestic use.
  • Domestic soybean meal disappearance is forecast at 32.9 million short tons, up 600,000 from the previous forecast.
  • Soybean oil disappearance is forecast at 19.4 billion pounds, up 100 million pounds.

• Stocks:

  • Season-ending stocks are forecast at 470 million bushels, up 45 million bushels from the previous forecast.
  • Market prices fell sharply due to the increased stock forecast.
  • Average farm price is forecast at $8.40–9.90 per bushel, down 10 cents from the previous forecast.

• International Competition:

  • Brazil's soybean exports are expected to reach a record 54.5 million metric tons for 2015/16.
  • Argentina's soybean exports are forecast at 9.75 million tons for the new crop.
  • China's soybean imports are forecast to increase to 79 million tons, driven by smaller domestic oilseed harvests and tight foreign rapeseed supplies.

U.S. Peanut Outlook

• Production:

  • Forecast at 6.2 billion pounds for 2015/16, up 19% due to increased sown acreage (1,600,000 acres).
  • National average yield is forecast at 3,950 pounds per acre, slightly higher than the 2014/15 average of 3,932 pounds.

• Exports:

  • U.S. peanut exports are expected to increase to 1.1 billion pounds, but may not offset the surplus.
  • Argentina's peanut exports are forecast to rise to 1.65 billion pounds, potentially overshadowing U.S. exports.

• Stocks:

  • Beginning stocks are forecast at 1.864 billion pounds, and season-ending stocks may reach nearly 2.6 billion pounds due to surplus supply.

U.S. Cottonseed Outlook

• Production:

  • Forecast at 4.198 million short tons for 2015/16, an 18% decline from 2014/15.
  • Lower yields and reduced harvested acreage are the main factors behind the decline.

• Domestic Use:

  • Domestic feed use of cottonseed is expected to fall by nearly 20% to 2.45 million short tons.
  • Cottonseed meal disappearance is forecast at 640,000 short tons, down from previous years.

• Exports:

  • U.S. cottonseed exports are forecast to increase slightly to 1.135 million tons, but may not offset the reduced supply.

• Stocks:

  • Season-ending stocks are forecast at 394,000 short tons, indicating a tightening supply.

International Outlook

• Brazil:

  • Record soybean exports are expected due to strong yields and a depreciating currency.
  • The U.S. dollar's appreciation and Brazil's economic challenges may impact its export competitiveness.

• Argentina:

  • Soybean exports are forecast to increase to 9.75 million tons for 2015/16.
  • Argentina's soybean exports are expected to rise to 1.65 billion pounds due to surplus stocks.

• China:

  • Increased soybean imports are expected to reach 79 million tons due to reduced domestic oilseed production and limited foreign rapeseed availability.
  • However, increased domestic crushing may reduce the need for soybean oil imports.

• EU:

  • Reduced rapeseed and sunflowerseed supplies are expected to increase soybean imports.
  • EU sunflowerseed production is forecast at 8.1 million tons for 2015/16, down 100,000 tons due to heat and drought in July.
  • EU rapeseed production is forecast at 21.1 million tons, down 300,000 tons due to lower yields in some key regions.

• Global Oilseed Supplies:

  • Global rapeseed production is forecast at 64.6 million tons for 2015/16, down 2.6 million tons.
  • Global rapeseed stocks are expected to fall to a 12-year low of 3.4 million tons.

Key Information

• Weather Impact:

  • Excessively wet conditions in the U.S. Midwest and East Corn Belt have affected crop development and increased disease incidence.
  • Drought and heat in parts of Europe have reduced sunflowerseed and rapeseed yields.

• Exchange Rates:

  • The U.S. dollar's strengthening against major currencies has made U.S. soybean exports less competitive.
  • Brazil's currency depreciation has enhanced its export competitiveness.

• Market Dynamics:

  • Abundant soybean supplies in Brazil and Argentina have dampened U.S. export demand.
  • China's increased soybean imports are a key driver of global trade dynamics.
  • Reduced supplies of canola and cottonseed are affecting the demand for soybean products in the U.S. and globally.

• Prices:

  • U.S. soybean prices are forecast to range from $8.40–9.90 per bushel for 2015/16.
  • Soybean meal and oil prices are also expected to decline due to increased supply and lower demand.

Summary of Key Tables

• Table 1: Shows U.S. soybean supply and disappearance for 2013/14, 2014/15, and 2015/16, with ending stocks for each marketing year.
• Table 2: Provides U.S. soybean meal supply and disappearance data, including forecast changes.
• Table 3: Details U.S. soybean oil supply and disappearance, highlighting the forecast increase in domestic disappearance.
• Table 4: Summarizes U.S. cottonseed supply and disappearance, showing a decline in production and use.
• Table 5: Covers U.S. cottonseed meal supply and disappearance, with forecast reductions.
• Table 6: Includes U.S. cottonseed oil supply and disappearance, noting a decrease in production and use.
• Table 7: Provides U.S. peanut supply and disappearance data, showing increased production and potential surplus.
• Table 8: Lists the prices received by U.S. farmers for various oil crops, indicating a decline in soybean prices.
• Table 9: Summarizes U.S. vegetable oil and fats prices, with a focus on the decline in soybean oil prices.

This report outlines the complex interplay of production, exports, and domestic use in the oil crop sector, emphasizing the impact of weather, exchange rates, and international trade dynamics on market outlooks.