20210714-USDA-USDA_Oil_Crops_Outlook_2021.07.14_8页_236kb

报告摘要

Outlook Summary: July 2021

Core Content

The July 2021 Outlook Report by the USDA's Economic Research Service provides an analysis of global and domestic oil crops, focusing on soybeans, canola, and other oilseeds. It outlines changes in production, exports, and domestic use forecasts, as well as price trends for the 2020/21 and 2021/22 marketing years.

Main Points

South American Soybean Exports

Export Forecast Reductions: USDA has lowered the 2020/21 soybean export forecasts for Argentina and Brazil by 2.65 million metric tons and 3 million metric tons, respectively.
Reasons for Reduction:
- Drought in Argentina has limited the ability to export soybeans to ports.
- Weaker demand from China's crush sector has reduced the need for soybean imports from Brazil.
Export Forecasts:
- Argentina: 3.7 million metric tons
- Brazil: 83 million metric tons
Ending Stocks: Both countries are expected to have increased ending stocks in 2020/21 and 2021/22 compared to the previous forecast.

Domestic Soybean Crush and Use

Soybean Crush Forecast: Reduced by 5 million bushels to 2,170 million bushels due to declining domestic use.
Soybean Meal Production: Lowered by 0.2 million short tons to 51.4 million short tons.
Domestic Use Forecast: Reduced by 0.15 million tons to 37.8 million tons.
Soybean Meal Price: Expected to decrease from $405 per ton to $395 per ton.
Soybean Oil Production: Forecasted to remain unchanged at 25.4 billion pounds due to higher extraction rates.
Soybean Oil Exports: Reduced by 125 million pounds to 1,775 million pounds.
Domestic Use of Soybean Oil:
- Biodiesel use: Declined by 200 million pounds.
- Food and residual use: Increased by 300 million pounds to 14.6 billion pounds.
Soybean Oil Price: Reduced to $0.575 per pound.
Soybean Price Forecast: Revised down by $0.20 to $11.05 per bushel due to lower prices earlier in the marketing year and declining stocks.
Ending Stocks: Remained unchanged at 135 million bushels despite lower exports.

2021/22 Soybean Acreage and Crop Conditions

Acreage Increase: Acreage for the 2021/22 crop increased by 5% to 87.6 million acres, in line with March projections.
Crop Conditions:
- 59% of the crop is rated good or excellent as of July 12, 2021.
- 46% of soybeans are blooming, an increase of 6% from the five-year average.
Price Forecast: Revised down by $0.15 to $13.70 per bushel due to reduced prices heading into the new marketing year.

Key Information

Canola and Other Oilseeds Outlook

Canola Production: Reduced by 944 million pounds (112,000 acres) to 2,934 million pounds due to dry conditions and lower yields.
Canola Crush: Reduced by 700 million pounds to 3,997 million pounds.
Canola Seed Price: Increased by $2.30 to $28.60 per bushel due to high demand.
Canola Oil Production: Declined to 1,693 million pounds, with a 265 million pound decline in domestic use.
Canola Oil Price: Increased by $0.05 to $0.76 per pound due to strong demand.
Canola Meal Production: Reduced by 184 million pounds to 1,154 million pounds.
Canola Meal Price: Increased by $5.00 to $345 per ton.

Global Oilseed Production Trends

Global Oilseed Production: Increased by 2.5 million metric tons to 635.4 million metric tons, mainly due to higher sunflowerseed production.
Russian Sunflowerseed Production: Increased by 2.0 million metric tons to 16.5 million metric tons.
Canadian Canola Production: Reduced by 300,000 metric tons to 20.2 million metric tons, a 3-year high.
EU Rapeseed Production: Reduced by 200,000 metric tons to 17 million metric tons, partially offset by increased imports (150,000 metric tons).
Australian Canola Production: Increased by 300,000 metric tons to 4.3 million metric tons.
Chinese Rapeseed Production: Increased by 200,000 metric tons to 14 million metric tons.
Russian Rapeseed Production: Increased by 100,000 metric tons to 2.45 million metric tons.
Ukrainian Rapeseed Production: Increased by 100,000 metric tons to 3.1 million metric tons.
Global Canola/Rapeseed Production: Forecasted at 74.1 million metric tons, a 3% increase from the previous year.

India's Oilseed Outlook

Cottonseed Production: Reduced by 297,000 metric tons to 12.0 million metric tons due to drier conditions.
Peanut Production: Increased by 300,000 metric tons to 6.3 million metric tons due to larger planted area.
Palm Oil Imports: Increased by 150,000 metric tons in 2020/21 and 100,000 metric tons in 2021/22, following a reduction in import tax from 15% to 10% to lower domestic prices and tame food inflation.

Conclusion

The 2020/21 marketing year saw lower soybean exports from South America due to drought and reduced Chinese demand, while domestic use and prices were also affected by lower crush volumes and stock levels. For the 2021/22 year, soybean acreage increased, and crop conditions remained favorable, though prices are expected to decline. Meanwhile, canola production declined globally, but sunflowerseed, cottonseed, and peanuts saw increased production due to favorable conditions and rising demand. India adjusted its cottonseed and palm oil policies to respond to market pressures and global demand trends.