20170316-大华继显-Regional_Morning_Notes_26页_1mb

报告摘要

Regional Morning Notes Summary

Core Content Overview

This document provides a summary of stock performance, company results, and market insights for various regions including China, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore, as well as Thailand's food sector and key financial indices. It also includes analyst ratings, key financial metrics, and corporate events.

China

Agile Property Holdings (3383 HK)

2016 Performance: Core net profit exceeded estimates, with a 13.0% yoy increase. The company also announced a higher-than-expected dividend of HK$0.45/share, which includes a special dividend of HK$0.25.
Key Highlights:
- Improved margins bottomed out in 2016 and are expected to recover further in 2017-2018.
- The company's new Rmb60b sales target for 2017 is ambitious, but its major resources are concentrated in HPR cities.
- The 2017F target price is HK$5.96, with an upside of -7.9% from the current share price of HK$6.47.
Financials:
- 2016 Revenue: Rmb46,679m (8.5% yoy growth)
- 2016 Core Net Profit: Rmb2,744m (13.0% yoy growth)
- 2016 Net Margin: 5.9% (up from 5.6% in 2015)
- 2016 Net Debt/Equity: 61.4% (down from 78.4% in 2015)
- 2016 ROE: 7.9% (up from 7.1% in 2015)
Valuation Metrics:
- 2017F PE: 7.2x
- 2017F P/B: 0.6x
- 2017F EV/EBITDA: 6.2x
- RNAV: HK$11.92/share (current share price is 45.7% below RNAV)
Analysts: David Yang, Wendy Liu
Stock Impact:
- The dividend payment exceeded expectations, supporting the share price.
- Land acquisition resumed at higher costs, and the company plans to spend Rmb28b on land in 2017.
- The company's balance sheet improved, with a reduced funding cost of 7.6%.

Hong Kong

Cathay Pacific (293 HK)

2016 Performance: 2H16 results were below expectations due to higher costs. The stock was downgraded to SELL, with a target price of HK$10.50.
Market Indexes:
- HSI: 23,792.9 (down 0.1% in 1D, 0.0% in 1W, -1.3% in 1M, 8.1% YTD)
- KLCI: 1717.4 (down 0.5% in 1W, 0.6% in 1M, 4.6% YTD)
- KOSPI: 2133.0 (up 1.8% in 1W, 2.5% in 1M, 5.3% YTD)

Indonesia

Astra International (ASII IJ)

2017 Outlook: Potential net income growth of 26.3% driven by the recovery of the financial segment.
Stock Rating: BUY with a target price of Rp9,600.

Malaysia

Deleum (DLUM MK)

Rating: HOLD
Share Price: RM0.995
Target Price: RM1.06
Upside: +6.5%
2017 Outlook: Expected weak 1Q17 due to monsoon season and temporary disruption in several slickline units, but with minor profit impact due to dedicated rates.

Iskandar Waterfront City (IWCB MK)

Rating: NOT RATED
Share Price: RM2.75
Ongoing Corporate Restructuring: Expected to create a real estate giant with a landbank value of RM31b-42b, potentially warranting a seat in the FBMKLCI Index.

Singapore

Singapore Post (SPOST SP)

Rating: HOLD
Share Price: S$1.34
Target Price: S$1.46
Outlook: Transformational phase continues in FY18.

Thailand

Food Sector

4Q16 Performance: Decent earnings reported.

Key Indices

DJIA: 20950.1 (up 0.5% in 1D, 0.5% in 1W, 1.6% in 1M, 6.0% YTD)
S&P 500: 2385.3 (up 0.8% in 1D, 0.9% in 1W, 1.6% in 1M, 6.5% YTD)
FTSE 100: 7368.6 (up 0.1% in 1D, 0.5% in 1W, 1.2% in 1M, 3.2% YTD)
AS30: 5813.7 (up 0.3% in 1D, 0.2% in 1W, -0.8% in 1M, 1.7% YTD)
CSI 300: 3463.6 (up 0.2% in 1D, 0.4% in 1W, 0.7% in 1M, 4.6% YTD)
FSSTI: 3137.4 (down 0.2% in 1D, -0.2% in 1W, 1.3% in 1M, 8.9% YTD)
HSCEI: 10272.8 (down 0.4% in 1D, -0.1% in 1W, -1.7% in 1M, 9.3% YTD)
HSI: 23792.9 (down 0.1% in 1D, 0.0% in 1W, -1.3% in 1M, 8.1% YTD)
JCI: 5432.4 (up 0.0% in 1D, 0.7% in 1W, 1.0% in 1M, 2.6% YTD)
BDI: 1112 (up 1.2% in 1D, 6.4% in 1W, 61.6% in 1M, 15.7% YTD)
CPO (RM/mt): 2943 (down 1.1% in 1D, -1.4% in 1W, -10.5% in 1M, -8.0% YTD)
Brent Crude (US$/bbl): 52 (up 1.7% in 1D, -2.4% in 1W, -7.1% in 1M, -8.8% YTD)

Top Picks (BUY)

Ping An Insurance (2318 HK): Target Price HK$47.00, Potential Upside 11.9%
Bank Negara Indonesia (BBNI LJ): Target Price LJ 7,100.00, Potential Upside 10.9%
Indosat (ISAT LJ): Target Price LJ 8,015.00, Potential Upside 14.5%
Tiga Pilar (AISA LJ): Target Price LJ 2,550.00, Potential Upside 12.3%
Inari Amertron (INRI MK): Target Price MK 2.15, Potential Upside 12.6%
V.S. Industriy (VSI MK): Target Price MK 2.00, Potential Upside 14.9%
OCBC (OCBC SP): Target Price SP 10.75, Potential Upside 11.4%
Venture Corp (VMS SP): Target Price SP 12.40, Potential Upside 10.4%
Bangkok Dusit (BDMS TB): Target Price TB 27.00, Potential Upside 35.7%
Siam Cement (SCC TB): Target Price TB 600.00, Potential Upside 14.1%

Corporate Events

Luncheon with Ten Pao Group Holdings: Hong Kong, 21 Mar
Roadshow with Globetronics Technology: Singapore, 23 Mar
Roadshow with China Display Optoelectronics Technology: Hong Kong, 23 Mar
Roadshow with China TCM: Hong Kong, 24 Mar
Roadshow with Meidong Auto: Hong Kong, 27 Mar
Group Luncheon with Yitai Coal: Hong Kong, 28 Mar
Roadshow with Sihuan Pharma: Shanghai, 7 Apr; Taiwan, 12-13 Apr
Roadshow with Singtel: Canada, 26 May

Key Assumptions

GDP Growth:
- US: 2.6% (2015), 1.7% (2016F), 2.7% (2017F)
- Euro Zone: 2.0% (2015), 1.6% (2016F), 1.1% (2017F)
- Japan: 1.2% (2015), 0.8% (2016F), 0.9% (2017F)
- Singapore: 2.0% (2015), 1.4% (2016F), 1.8% (2017F)
- Malaysia: 5.0% (2015), 4.2% (2016F), 4.5% (2017F)
- Thailand: 2.8% (2015), 3.2% (2016F), 3.3% (2017F)
- Indonesia: 4.8% (2015), 5.0% (2016F), 5.2% (2017F)
- China: 6.9% (2015), 6.7% (2016F), 6.3% (2017F)
Brent Crude (US$/bbl): 45 (2016), 56 (2017F), 61 (2018F)
CPO (RM/mt): 2,653 (2016), 2,600 (2017F), 2,500 (2018F)

Conclusion

The document outlines key financial performance and market outlooks for several companies and indices across different regions. It highlights the improved results and dividend policies for Agile Property Holdings, the growth expectations for Astra International, and the performance of China Longyuan Power. Analysts suggest holding or buying certain stocks based on their potential for growth and improved fundamentals. The report also includes corporate events and key assumptions for future economic and financial trends.

展开完整摘要