Morgan_Stanley_Fixed-Global_Macro_Commentary_January_28-113132273_23页_941kb

报告摘要

Morgan Stanley Global Macro Commentary: Asia and Global Market Analysis

Market Update

Global risk sentiment recovered after a Monday tech-induced equity sell-off, boosted by concerns over potential US tariffs. US equities rose (+0.9%), while global duration markets experienced a sell-off.
The US dollar (DXY) strengthened (+0.5%) amid reports about US tariffs, while the Japanese yen underperformed against the greenback.
European duration markets weakened as inflation data influenced yields. Bunds and EGBs saw some movement, with spreads narrowing due to improving risk sentiment.

Key Developments

Tax Policy and Trade: With Scott Bessent (US Treasury Secretary) advocating for tariffs, UST yields initially rose but were capped by a strong 7-year auction. Global bond markets reacted with mixed sentiment.
Monetary Policy: The BoJ raised the policy rate, but market volatility was strong. FOMC is expected to maintain a hold in January, emphasizing a cautious easing approach.
Economic Data: US durable goods orders fell unexpectedly, though underlying industrial production was solid, with December's disappointment amplified in retail and consumer confidence data.

Risk Factors

Tariffs: Concerns over potential gradual universal tariffs may disrupt global trade and markets.
Trade Wars: Currency volatility, including the USDJPY pair, rose amidst tariff news, while emerging markets experienced capture of gains.
US Inflation Data: Markets appear to be cautious, with mixed signals about disinflation strength and other economic indicators.

Forward Guidance

Markets await US inflation data and will eye FOMC meetings for policy direction. The exact path of rate cuts remains unclear. Analysts emphasize monitoring the impact of tariffs on the US economy.

Market Outlook

The DXY traded at 107.90, while the 10-year US Treasury yield settled at 4.532%. Japanese 10-year JGB yields held steady at slightly over 1.%, but upgrades in real yields saw a slight cooldown.
Central banks remain cautious about exits from extraordinary policies, balancing inflation control with sustainable growth.

EM and Asia