Morgan_Stanley_Fixed-Global_Macro_Commentary_January_16-112885478_24页_958kb

报告摘要

Here is a summary of the Morgan Stanley Global Macro Commentary for January 16, 2025:

Fed's Waller Suggests Potential Rate Cuts
Fed Governor Waller mentioned that 0.5% inflation data is a prerequisite for an initial 25bp cut in early 2025. A cut in March is possible if the data cooperate, and three or four cuts this year are possible.
Rate Cuts Expected Globally
- The BoK held its policy rate unchanged but anticipates future cuts depending on external conditions, domestic political uncertainty, and US policies.
- Markets bet on the NBP cutting interest rates for the first time in June.
- Markets also anticipate the Austrian BoA cutting rates by 25bps by March quarter-end.
Duration Markets
- UST 10y yields fell to 4.613% (-4bp).
- German yields dropped (Bunds down 3bp on 2yr), UK yields fell (-2bp on 2yr), DBR 10y yields fell (-2bp) and JGB 10y yields rose (+5bp).
US Economic Data
- Headline US Retail Sales rose 0.4% (+0.4% YoM), while the Control Group rose 0.7% (+0.7% YoM). Core PCE was stable at 0.17% MoM.
- Initial Jobless Claims rose to 217k (+25k YoM), Pusher Construction Index jumped to 44.3 (highest since 2021).
G10 Currency Performance
- CAD dropped 0.4% amid oil price declines and potential US tariffs, AUD fell 0.3%, NZD fell 0.2%. Risk-sensitive currencies were sold-off.
- EUR fell to 1.030 (-0.1%), GBP rose 0.7% amid strong UK economic data, CHF fell further against the USD.
Key Upcoming Events
- Thursday: Fed Governor Waller speaks.
- Friday: NBP Governor holds a press conference after BoP meetings.
Focus Markets
- UST Curve: 10Y breakevens are flat, and yields finished -4bps on 10yr.
- Fed Statement: April 2025 rate guidance shift expected after March meeting.
- AUD Negative Yield: JPY Curve remain flat in the belly.
Economic Outlook
- Core PCE inflation in the US is expected to fall from 2.35% to 2.0% or lower, accelerating expectations for Fed easing.
- Market implies 3-4 cuts by end-2025, but Aussies, Canadians, and Poles appear skeptical at first.