Morgan_Stanley_Fixed-Global_Macro_Commentary_January_31-113205858_22页_1mb

Morgan Stanley Global Macro Commentary Summary

According to Morgan Stanley's report for January 31, 2025, the key market themes presented in the report are as follows (translated from English to Chinese):

1. Market Overview & Risk Factors

• Tariff uncertainty continues to weigh on global markets and U.S. Treasuries, USD strengthens while U.S. equities fall.
• Inflation data confirm the downward trajectory for inflation. U.S. Core PCE rose 0.16% m/m, showing disinflation remains intact despite upward revisions, attributed mainly to hurricane effects from last year.

2. Major Central Bank Actions & Views

• Fed Governor Bowman prefers gradual policy easing, pending progress on inflation; inflation is expected to slow further this year.
• BanRep (Brazil) unexpectedly kept rates on hold instead of cutting, citing upside inflation risks.
• BoJ (Japan) Deputy Governor Himino hinting at staying high at terminal rates, pressuring JGBs to bear steepen.
• ECB Governing Council Members stressed that current disinflation is lower in terms of GDP (without damaging growth) and no longer needs major economic support.

3. Asset Prices & Currency Trends

• G4 (US, Germany, UK, Japan) 10y yields: Mixed trends, with curve steepening in U.S. and Germany, but flatness in Japan suggesting an expectation of continued low risk aversion.
• USD/JPY is sensitive to BoJ's terminal rate guidance and tapered talk, contributing to downward trending.
• EM Currencies: Broad choppy trends for most markets except NZD/AUD. Risk aversion seeing CHF and JPY flare up.

4. Key Event Analysis

• Impending U.S. Tariffs: Originally Feb 1 deadline now Feb 1 with exemptions. Short-term impact drove sell-off in U.S. Treasuries and equities.
• BoE Meeting: Scheduled Feb 6 will likely assess month-end liquidity effects and revised inflation projections.

5. Asset Strategies

• G4 Smarter Trading Strategy: Two beta strategies based on momentum crossovers (fade shorts/only) for G4 10y futures. Performance since 2000 shows steady returns vs. broad indices.
• US Holidays Trading Model: Generated no down years since 1987. Example: Traders should long 10y Treasuries before Christmas, entering 3 business days prior and exiting 1 business day later.

6. Forward Views

• Upcoming Economic Data: The following are the two most important events next week: U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI expected around 50.5 (contracting) and U.S. Core PCE due next month.

7. Analysts & Disclosures

The report prepared by Morgan Stanley Research involves various conflicts but is aligned under its standard research methodology. Friedhelm Kuempel noted that the approach often balances the necessity of higher rates with engagement in risk assets.