Morgan_Stanley_Fixed-Global_Macro_Commentary_January_14-112827986_23页_929kb

Morgan Stanley Research Update (January 14, 2025)

Global Macro Commentary Highlights

1. Market Reaction to PPI Miss: December US PPI rose 0.2% m/m below expectations, leading to a knee-jerk rally in USTs before rolling back ahead of the CPI release.
2. Currency & FX Trends:
   • DXY drops 0.6% after media suggests potential US tariff policy may be less aggressive.
   • EUR/USD Bullish amid stretched short positioning unwinding.
   • CHF, SEK, and GBP outperform despite US weakness.
3. Central Bank Developments:
   • BoJ: Deputy Governor Himino signals higher chance of January rate hike due to improved outlook on wages and US policy uncertainty.
   • ECB: Governing Council members' addresses indicate mixed sentiment on rate cuts; Holzmann hints inflation "hiccups" may delay easing.

Key Data & Market Movements

• US PPI Components: Airfares up 4.65% m/m; Ex-Food, Energy, Trade rose 0.1% m/m.
• Hungary CPI: Accelerated to 4.6% y/y, leading to a 2bp sell-off across its curve.
• Bond Yields:
  • US 10y yield at 4.792% (+1.5bp)
  • Germany 10y yield at 2.650% (+3.8bp)
  • Japan 10y yield at 1.24% (-4.6bp)

Asset Performance

• CPI & Equities: Technology sector pressured ahead of CPI, Stoxx 600 holds 0.5%; Oil gives back ground (-1.4%).
• FX Highlights: USD/JPY flat at ~157.6; NZD and AUD perform well under risk-on sentiment.

Upcoming Events & Economic Outlook

• US: Focus on Wednesday CPI (expected 0.37% m/m headline, Core decelerating).
• G10 Data: ECB officials speak amid inflation "hiccups," UK GDP likely -0.1% y/y.
• Greece, S. Africa, & Hungary inflation and growth prints to monitor.

Tactical Views

• Bond Duration: European duration steepens due to rerouting ahead of ECB/UK data.
• Global FX: Short GBP positioning highest since Nov 2024; AUD weakens post-CPI.
• Strategy Notes: G4 10y "Smarter" momentum strategy active; US Holiday trading signals stabilize in currencies after MLK Day.