2025-06-11-花旗集团-伍德赛德能源集团有限公司（WDS）_伍德赛德能源集团有限公司（WDS.AX）模型更新_12页_413kb
报告摘要
Citigroup Research: Woodside Energy Group (WDS.AX) - Model Update & Valuation
Key Changes
- Coverage Period: Extended to 2030 from 2027.
- No other forecast adjustments.
Valuation
- Current Price: A$23.47 per share.
- Target Price: A$21.50 per share.
- Expected Share Price Return: -8.4%.
- Expected Dividend Yield: 5.2%.
- Expected Total Return: -3.2%.
- Market Capitalization: AUD A$44,564M / USD $28,969M.
- Rating: Neutral (Hold).
Financial Forecast (YE: December)
Revenue
- 2023: $13,994m → 2027E: $12,927m (-8.8%)
Core Performance (YoY vs. %)
| Year | Sales (US$m) | EBIT (US$m) | Core Net Profit (US$m) | Core EPS (US¢) | EPS Growth (%) | PE Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 13,994 | 5,224 | 3,320 | 174.3 | -49.1% | 8.8x |
| 2024 | 13,179 | 4,435 | 2,880 | 151.2 | -13.3% | 10.1x |
| 2025E | 12,619 | 3,502 | 1,867 | 97.6 | -35.4% | 15.6x |
| 2026E | 11,337 | 1,786 | 822 | 42.6 | -56.4% | 35.9x |
| 2027E | 12,927 | 3,635 | 1,862 | 95.6 | +124.7% | 16.0x |
Key Growth Catalysts & Risks
Valuation Drivers
- Target price based on life-of-assets DCF model.
- Risk weighting applied to key LNG projects:
- Scarborough/Pluto T2 (100% risk weighting)
- Louisiana LNG (P1: 90%, P2: 80%)
- Beaumont P1 (90%), Trion (100%), Calypso (25%), Sunrise/Browse (10%).
Investment Risks
- Macroeconomic Uncertainty: US trade volatility, risk of global recession impacting energy demand.
- Scarborough/Pluto T2 Project: Cost pressures, project delays, carbon emissions scrutiny.
- Geopolitical Instability: Inflation, interest rates affecting growth assets in high-risk regions (e.g., Trinidad & Tobago, Senegal, Mexico).
- Energy Prices: JKM prices could bottom further if European inventories cap demand; European recession risk depresses Brent/oil prices.
Dividend & Shareholder Returns
- Dividend Yield: Expected 5.2% (2025E).
- Payout Ratio: Stable at 81%.
- Free Cash Flow to Shareholders: Expected to rise (2025E: A$883m).
Analyst Contact
- Paul McTaggart AC
- Phone: +61-2-8225-3162
- Email: paul.mctaggart@citi.com
Important Disclosures (Overview)
- Citigroup has market-making duties and may have conflicts of interest.
- Research recommendations not linked to compensation.
- Significant affiliations listed (including equity ownership, market-making role, etc.)
- Disclosure compliance varies by jurisdiction; FINRA/FCA/SEC regulations detailed.
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