20241215-光大期货-有色策略周报_116页_7mb

光大证券有色策略周报总结

宏观与基本面概述

美国11月CPI同比上涨27%，核心CPI同比上涨33%，PPI同比上涨3%，均高于预期，但通胀热预期上升质疑FOMC本月是否会加息。国内方面，中央经济工作会议保持积极财政与适度宽松货币政策基调，提振市场信心。整体显示内外铜价出现回暖，但利多因素逐步落地，市场情绪不升反降，多空观望情绪渐浓，形成区间震荡行情。

金属价格走势

• 铜价：美元大幅回落、美国异常暖冬、消息扰动下，期货价格大幅下挫，亏损严重。
• 铝价：氧化铝现货升水扩大，电解铝贴水扩大；进口利润扩大国
  内主港铝库存回升，但下游局部领域存在政策利好。
• 锌价：进口矿加工费保持高位，进口倒挂支持国内锌价偏强。
• 锡价：供需格局改善需求预期良好支撑价格。
• 镍不锈钢价：新能源汽车政策利好驱动不锈钢消费及镍需求复苏。

Inflation rose sharply recently: the US November year-over-year CPI increased by 27%, and Core CPI by 3.3%. The Personal Consumption 5Expenditure (PCE) price index also accelerated, signaling higher inflation ahead. This development increases the likelihood of an interest rate cut announcement this month.

Overall economic outlook remains cautious across global markets. Supply chain issues and geopolitical factors continue to impact sectors 5such as semiconductors and energy. Central banks are likely to hold high interest rates for longer if inflation resurges, making market volatility probable. Supply is tighter than expected, while demand remains surprisingly strong from recent levels. The entire market for goods and services may benefit from new AI infrastructure spending and trade deals, which are expected to boost investment.