2021生产差距报告（英）-104页_12mb

The Production Gap Report 2021 Summary

Core Content

The Production Gap Report 2021 highlights the significant misalignment between governments' planned fossil fuel production and the levels required to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement, specifically limiting global warming to 1.5°C or 2°C. The report is a collaborative effort by multiple research institutions and experts, with the Stockholm Environment Institute playing a central role in coordination.

Main Findings

• Global Production Gap: Governments are planning to produce more than twice the amount of fossil fuels in 2030 than would be consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C. This is 45% more than what would be consistent with 2°C.
• 2030 and 2040 Projections: By 2040, the production gap is expected to widen further, with coal production increasing by 240%, oil by 57%, and gas by 71% compared to 1.5°C pathways.
• Fossil Fuel Dominance: Despite growing net-zero pledges, fossil fuels still dominate global energy supply, and the world is not on track to meet climate targets.
• G20 Funding Trends: Since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, G20 countries have allocated nearly USD 300 billion in new funds to fossil fuel activities, more than they have to clean energy. However, international public finance for fossil fuels has decreased in recent years.
• Government Role: Governments, through state-owned enterprises and public policies, play a critical role in shaping fossil fuel production. Most have not yet developed plans to reduce production in line with climate goals.

Key Viewpoints

• The production gap refers to the difference between planned fossil fuel production and the levels consistent with limiting global warming to 1.5°C or 2°C.
• Net-zero targets are not sufficient unless accompanied by concrete plans to reduce fossil fuel production.
• The just transition is essential to ensure that the shift away from fossil fuels is equitable and does not disproportionately harm workers and communities.
• Transparency in fossil fuel production and support is crucial for addressing the gap, as current information is incomplete, inconsistent, and scattered.

Critical Insights

• The latest IPCC report emphasizes the urgency of limiting warming to 1.5°C, with the window of opportunity rapidly closing.
• Fossil fuel subsidies and government support mechanisms, such as tax breaks and infrastructure investments, continue to drive production.
• The international public finance for fossil fuels has declined, but still remains substantial, especially in G20 countries.
• Country-specific plans show that while some nations are beginning to discuss a managed transition, most are not yet implementing policies that would align with climate goals.
• The transition to a low-carbon economy requires a steep and sustained decline in fossil fuel production and use, not just emission reductions from extraction.

Country Profiles

The report includes country profiles for 15 major fossil fuel-producing countries, analyzing their production plans, support mechanisms, and policy discussions. These countries are:

• Australia
• Brazil
• Canada
• China
• Germany
• India
• Indonesia
• Mexico
• Norway
• Russia
• Saudi Arabia
• South Africa
• United Arab Emirates
• United Kingdom
• United States

Most of these countries are planning to increase oil and gas production, while some are considering reductions in coal. However, few have publicly assessed whether their production plans align with the Paris Agreement goals.

Recommendations

• Governments should strengthen transparency by disclosing fossil fuel production plans in their climate commitments.
• There is a need to align production with climate goals, not just emissions.
• Public finance should be redirected away from fossil fuels and towards clean energy.
• Policies must support a just and equitable transition for workers and communities affected by the decline in fossil fuel production.

Conclusion

The report underscores the urgent need for a global and rapid wind-down of fossil fuel production to meet climate targets. It calls for immediate and sustained action from governments, emphasizing the importance of transparency, policy reform, and public finance redirection to ensure a fair and effective transition to a low-carbon future.