各国化石燃料生产计划与全球气候目标“严重不同步（新闻稿）-25页_582kb

The Production Gap Summary

Core Content

The Production Gap refers to the discrepancy between the fossil fuel production that countries plan to develop and the levels of production that would be consistent with limiting global warming to 1.5°C or 2°C. This report evaluates the planned fossil fuel production from 15 major producer countries and compares it with the production levels required to meet climate targets.

Main Views

• Planned Production: The "countries' plans and projections" (CPP) pathway includes production forecasts from 15 major fossil fuel-producing nations. These countries account for 75% of global fossil fuel production in 2020 (around 90% for coal, 70% for oil, and 65% for gas).
• Climate Pathways: The report uses mitigation scenarios from the IPCC SR1.5 to estimate production levels consistent with 1.5°C and 2°C warming limits. These scenarios include carbon dioxide removal (CDR) measures like bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) and afforestation.
• Methodology: Production data from countries are harmonized to exajoules (EJ) per year and scaled to a global estimate using the IEA Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS), which reflects existing and announced climate policies.
• CDR Constraints: Additional constraints are applied to CDR technologies to ensure sustainability and economic viability, which affects the selection of scenarios for 1.5°C and 2°C pathways.
• Scenario Classification: The report classifies pathways into groups based on their alignment with temperature limits and the degree of overshoot, with specific numbers of scenarios selected for each group.

Key Information

B.1 Estimating Global Production Levels under the CPP Pathway

• Data Sources: Projections from 15 countries were analyzed, including Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, Germany, India, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Mexico, Norway, Russia, Saudi Arabia, UAE, UK, and US.
• Data Harmonization: All data were converted to EJ per year using 2019 conversion factors. Where data was missing, it was extrapolated using STEPS trends.
• Scaling to Global Level: The production levels of these 15 countries were scaled to estimate global production, assuming their shares of global production follow the STEPS projection (around 72–75% of global fossil fuel production through 2040).
• Country-Specific Notes:
  • Australia: Projections extended to 2040 using STEPS trends.
  • Brazil: Gas production reduced by 38% to exclude re-injection and flaring.
  • Canada: "Evolving" scenario used as the main projection.
  • China: Coal and oil production estimated from consumption data, assuming 7% import ratio.
  • Germany: Lignite production expected to reach zero by 2038.
  • India: Projections extended to 2040 using STEPS.
  • Kazakhstan: Projections for oil and gas based on government announcements.
  • Mexico: Gas projections reduced by 20% to exclude NGLs.
  • Norway: Production projections based on reported data.
  • Russia: Average of "optimistic" and "conservative" scenarios.
  • Saudi Arabia: Two scenarios used for oil and gas.
  • UAE: Oil projections based on ADNOC's plans.
  • UK: No coal projections, oil and gas data adjusted to match IEA units.
  • US: EIA Annual Energy Outlook used as the source.

B.2 Estimating Global Production Levels Consistent with 1.5°C or 2°C Pathways

• IPCC Scenarios: The report uses IPCC SR1.5 mitigation scenarios, which include CDR technologies.
• CDR Constraints: BECCS is limited to 5 GtCO₂/yr, and afforestation to 3.6 GtCO₂/yr, based on Fuss et al. (2018).
• Scenario Selection:
  • 1.5°C-consistent pathways: 19 scenarios (4 Below 1.5°C, 15 1.5°C-low overshoot).
  • 2°C-consistent pathways: 55 scenarios (8 1.5°C-high overshoot, 47 Lower 2°C).
• Model and Scenario List: The report includes data from AIM/CGE, GCAM, IMAGE, MESSAGE, POLES, REMIND, and WITCH-GLOBIOM models.

Summary of Methodology and Findings

• Units: Production data was converted to EJ per year for consistency.
• Extrapolation: Where projections ended before 2040, data was extended using IEA STEPS trends.
• Global Estimation: The CPP pathway was scaled to represent global production based on the relative shares of the 15 countries.
• CDR Alignment: Additional constraints on CDR were applied to ensure scenarios align with sustainability and economic feasibility.
• Changes from 2019: The 2021 assessment shows that global production under the CPP pathway is higher than under the STEPS, suggesting a conservative approach to extrapolation.

Tables Summary

• Table B1: Details data sources, methods, and conversion factors for each country and fuel type.
• Table B2: Shows the estimated percentage shares of global fossil fuel production by the 15 countries.
• Table B3: Classifies pathways based on their alignment with 1.5°C or 2°C targets and includes CDR constraints.
• Table B4: Lists the number of scenarios analyzed under each model for the 1.5°C and 2°C pathways.
• Table B5: Provides a full list of models and scenarios used in the report.

Conclusion

This report provides a detailed analysis of the Production Gap, highlighting the difference between current fossil fuel production plans and the levels needed to meet climate targets. It underscores the importance of transparency in government projections and the role of CDR in achieving low-carbon pathways. The methodology is transparent and based on harmonized data and established climate models.