2025-06-10-花旗集团-北美要点_20页_1mb

The Point for North America Summary

Core Content

This document outlines key insights and analyses from Citi Research on various stocks and market trends in North America, focusing on Apple, Webster Financial, Oracle, and AbbVie. The analysis includes product updates, earnings expectations, and investment recommendations based on current market conditions and company performance.

Main Points and Key Information

Apple, Inc. (AAPL.O)

• WWDC 2025 Highlights: Apple introduced a major revamp of its software design across platforms, new operating systems, and Apple Intelligence updates. The unified "Liquid Glass" design, improved Vision Pro, and Mac-like iPadOS were praised.
• Apple Intelligence Features: Includes ChatGPT-style integration, image recognition, auto-categorization, and enhanced Siri functionality, though the personalized Siri update is delayed to 2026.
• iPhone Forecasts:
  • 2025: 226M units
  • 2026: 234M units
• Growth Projections:
  • 2025: -0.6% YoY
  • 2026: +3.2% YoY
• Market Impact: The document notes a potential pullback in the June quarter due to tariff-related uncertainties and Section 232 decisions. The outlook remains positive for the long-term, with a Buy recommendation.
• Supply Chain Impact: Apple supply chain stocks historically outperform Apple's stock from WWDC to the iPhone launch in September. The report adds upside catalyst watches on SWKS and QRVO.

Webster Financial Corporation (WBS.N)

• One Big Beautiful Bill: The proposed bill aims to expand HSA funding and coverage, which could significantly impact Webster's HSA Bank.
• Earnings Impact: The bill could add $0.56 (or +8.3%) to 2026 EPS, surpassing the consensus estimate of $6.50.
• Updated Earnings Estimates:
  • 2025E: Citi estimates $5.91 Non-GAAP EPS, slightly above the consensus.
  • 2026E: Citi estimates $6.80 Non-GAAP EPS, with a +0.30 increase over consensus.
• Key Metrics:
  • Net Interest Revenue: 2025E = $2,505M, 2026E = $2,649M
  • Operating Income: 2025E = $1,275M, 2026E = $1,400M
  • Tax Rate: 2025E = 20.8%, 2026E = 21.0%

Oracle Corporation (ORCL.K)

• Q4 Expectations: The report indicates improved confidence in Oracle's fundamentals, particularly in database modernization and Federal contracts.
• Earnings and Revenue Outlook:
  • Citi slightly raises top-line estimates for FY26, but remains cautious about the aggressiveness of street estimates.
  • FY26 operating margin expectations are slightly below consensus (41.9% vs. 42.2%).
• Cloud Services:
  • Total Cloud Revenue is expected to grow from $5,311M in Q4 2025 to $6,686M.
  • IaaS (OCI) is projected to grow by 52% YoY in Q4 2025.
• Challenges: The report warns that near-term estimates may be too optimistic, potentially leading to negative revisions.

Adobe Inc. (ADBE.O)

• FQ2 Outlook: Adobe's performance is mixed, with continued share loss on Creative Cloud but positive signals from enterprise adoption and web traffic.
• Investment Rating: Neutral.
• Price Target: Raised to $465, based on a higher valuation regression framework (20x EV/FCF for FY26).
• Monetization Concerns: The report suggests that Adobe needs to demonstrate better Creative Cloud trends or significant genAI monetization to move beyond rangebound performance.

AbbVie (ABBV.N)

• CEO/CFO Call Highlights: The discussion included insights on policy impacts, commercial performance of Skyrizi and Rinvoq, and the company's entry into the metabolics space.
• R&D and M&A Focus: AbbVie is emphasizing R&D and manufacturing on-shoring as a strategy, with tax reform seen as a key incentive for these efforts.
• Policy Uncertainty: Management teams remain cautious about policy specifics, which continue to influence the business environment.

Summary of Key Recommendations

Historical Performance Insights

• AAPL vs RF Semis: Historically, Apple supply chain stocks (SWKS, QRVO) have outperformed Apple's stock from WWDC to the iPhone launch, with a notable performance during the iPhone 15 cycle.
• Stock Performance:
  • Three Months Before Release: SWKS average 2%, QRVO 6%, RF Semis average 4%, AAPL -6%.
  • Three Months After Release: SWKS -5%, QRVO -7%, RF Semis -6%, AAPL +7%.
• Valuation: Adobe's valuation is now seen at 20x EV/FCF for FY26, lower than large-cap averages of 34x.

Conclusion

The report provides a detailed analysis of key tech and financial stocks, emphasizing Apple's product innovation and the potential impact of policy changes on Webster Financial. Oracle and Adobe are viewed with cautious optimism, while AbbVie's strategic direction and policy environment remain uncertain. Overall, the market is expected to see mixed results with focus on long-term growth and performance metrics.