2025-06-11-花旗集团-美国经济_核心通胀在关税带来的上行风险前快速放缓_13页_347kb

Summary

• Inflation Trends: Core CPI inflation rose 0.13% month-over-month in May, which was softer than the forecast of 0.248% and consensus estimate of 0.3%. This indicates a broad-based slowdown across categories, with core goods and services showing signs of softening.

• Tariff Impact: Tariff effects are not yet fully apparent in May data, as softer demand may limit price pass-through. Expected impacts begin in late summer, with potential upward risks in auto prices by June due to tariffs and wholesale factors, but residual seasonality could offset some increases.

• Services and Shelter: Core services excluding shelter rose only 0.06% month-over-month, with discretionary services weakening. Shelter inflation continues to slow, supported by declining new rents and falling home prices, providing strong evidence against sustained inflation pressures.

• Fed Rate Cuts: The Federal Reserve is expected to continue with 125 basis points of consecutive rate cuts starting in September, as underlying inflation shows rapid easing ahead of tariff risks, boosting confidence in maintaining flexibility.

• Overall Outlook: Core inflation is decelerating faster than previously anticipated, reducing upside risks from tariffs. Without immediate evidence of persistent inflation from trade barriers, the focus remains on softening data supporting rates policy.