20140324-Maybank_KERPL-Daily_Edge_11页_337kb

报告摘要

Daily Edge Summary - 24 March 2014

Core Content

This document provides an overview of financial performance and market outlook for various companies in the Philippines, focusing on the stock market, key financial metrics, and analyst views. It includes updates on the gaming sector, property developments, banking sector, and utilities.

Main Points

Market Summary

PSEi: 6,339.26, down by 1.22%
Turnover (PHPm): 13,336.32, up by 87.30%
PLDT ADR (USD): 60.01, down by 1.32%
PLDT ADR (PHP): 2,755.66, up by 0.48%
Ave interbank rate: 2.00, no change
PHP/USD rate: 45.24, down by 0.37%

Analysts

Head of Research / Economist: Luz Lorenzo
Analysts: Laura Dy-Liacco, Rommel Rodrigo, Lovell Sarreal, Katherine Tan, Ramon Adviento

Top Idea

Gaming Sector: Focus on RWM (PHP8.90) with a "BUY" recommendation. The analysts expect better FY14 performance due to increasing gaming volumes and normalised VIP hold rates. The target price is trimmed to PHP12.73, a 2% decrease.

Key Information

RWM (Resorts World Manila)

FY13 Core Net Profit: PHP3.5b, down by 46% YoY
Reason for Disappointment: Low VIP hold rate (2.6% vs assumed 2.9%), higher staff costs, and promotional allowances
Hold Adjusted EBITDA: PHP10.4b, representing a 56% increase over actual EBITDA
EBITDA Margin: 29% on hold-adjusted GGR of PHP35b
Gaming Volume Growth:
- VIP volume: 27% YoY
- Mass market table volume: 8% YoY
- Slot handle: 2% YoY
- ETG volume: 31% YoY
Catalysts for Improvement:
- Closure of Airport Casino Filipino by mid-2014
- Potential increase in table count to 420 (up from 287)
- Increase in slot count to 2,074 (up from 1,822)
- Opening of Marriott Grand Ballroom & Convention Centre in early FY15
- Five airlines moving from NAIA-1 to NAIA-3, increasing visitor arrivals

Other Updates

VLL (Vista Land & Landscapes Inc):
- Set up 12 Lumina projects this year
- PHP28b capex program, with Lumina projects priced at PHP0.4m to less than PHP1.2m
- Started building in Davao City
MBT (Metrobank):
- Raised PHP16b in Basel III Tier 2 notes
- Coupon rate of 5.375% over 5-year PDST-F government benchmark
MER (Manila Electric Co):
- Prepaid meter project to be fully rolled out by 4Q14
- Budget of USD7m for the project
- Plans to allow reloading through Smart centers

Valuation Table

Phase	EBITDA (PHPm)	EV/EBITDA (x)	EV (PHPm)	EV/sh (PHP)	Comments
Phase I	11,403	12	136,839	8.57	FY14F
Phase II and III	-	-	70,046	4.39	30% ROIC discounted to end-FY14F at 9.8%

Equity Value and Target Price

Equity Value (PHPm): 203,297
Target Price (PHP): 12.73
Upside (%): -2%

The Week Ahead

21 Mar: Analyst and Investors' Briefing for Travellers International Hotel Group, Inc.
24 Mar: Annual Stockholders' Meeting for Trans-Asia Oil and Energy Development Corp.
31 Mar: Annual Stockholders' Meeting for Col Financial Group, Inc.

Analyst View on RWM

Hold Adjusted EBITDA: PHP10.4b, which would be 56% higher than actual EBITDA if VIP hold rate had materialised at 3.2%
Gaming Volume Growth: Expected to be 16% for FY14 and 11% for FY15, aligned with nominal GDP growth
ROIC: 30% for Phase 2 and 3
TP Premise: Based on 12x FY14 EV/EBITDA and 30% ROIC for Phase 2 and 3

Below Expectations

TIHG's FY13 Core Net Profit: PHP3.5b, below expectations by 45.8%
FY13 EBITDA: PHP6.7b, 27% lower YoY
Earnings Shortfall:
- VIP hold rate of 2.6% vs assumption of 2.9%
- Staff cost growth of 38% vs assumption of 30%
- Promotional allowance of 1.9% vs assumption of 1.6%

Gaming Volume Growth

VIP tables: 581,527 (up from 456,935 in FY12)
MM tables: 23,529 (up from 21,689 in FY12)
Slots: 110,669 (up from 108,207 in FY12)
ETGs: 1,042 (up from 796 in FY12)

Additional Information

YTD Daily Visitations: Average at ~20k, up from FY13 average of 18,873
TIHG's 4Q13 Core Net Loss: PHP462.6m, due to a very low VIP hold rate of 1.3%
4Q12 VIP Hold Rate: 3.2%
3Q13 VIP Hold Rate: 2.0%, still below the theoretical range of 3.0-3.2%

Earnings and Valuations Table

Stock	Share Price (PHP)	Target Price (PHP)	Upside (%)	Rec	Year	Net Profit (PHPm)	EPS Growth (%)	PE (x)	DPS (PHP)	Yield (%)	BV/share (PHP)	P/BV (x)	Gearing (%)	ROA (%)	ROE (%)
BDO	82.00	88.00	7	BUY	2012	13,953	4.46	17.4	18.4	-	-	-	42.29	1.9	11.5
BPI	87.90	93.50	6	HOLD	2012	16,352	4.60	26.8	19.1	-	-	-	27.19	3.2	17.8
CHIB	58.20	57.75	-1	HOLD	2012	5,049	3.54	9.3	12.8	-	-	-	16.23	1.2	11.2
EW	28.65	31.80	11	BUY	2012	1,750	14.43	9.3	19.3	-	-	-	59.86	4.7	24.8
MER	279.00	280.00	0	HOLD	2012	16,265	14.43	9.3	19.3	-	-	-	59.86	4.7	24.8

Conclusion

The report highlights that RWM is expected to perform better in FY14 with improved VIP hold rates and increased gaming volumes. Despite disappointing FY13 results, the company's strong growth in gaming volumes and upcoming projects offer potential for future performance. The document also provides updates on other sectors such as property and banking, with specific focus on VLL and MBT. Analysts maintain a "BUY" recommendation for several stocks, citing positive growth prospects and strong fundamentals.

展开完整摘要