世界发展银行-Climate-Risk-Country-Profile---Afghanistan_32页_1mb

CLIMATE RISK COUNTRY PROFILE: AFGHANISTAN

COPYRIGHT

© 2021 by the World Bank Group and the Asian Development Bank. This document is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 3.0 IGO License. It is intended for non-commercial use and must be cited as: Climate Risk Country Profile: Afghanistan (2021): The World Bank Group and the Asian Development Bank.

KEY MESSAGES

• Afghanistan is experiencing warming rates higher than the global average, with potential temperature increases of $1.4^{\circ}\mathrm{C} - 5.4^{\circ}\mathrm{C}$ by the 2080s and 2090s compared to the baseline of 1986–2005.
• Temperature increases are projected to be greater in annual maximum and minimum than average temperature, potentially increasing health risks, ecosystem stress, and economic impacts.
• Rainfall patterns are highly uncertain, but an increase in drought frequency is expected, especially during key agricultural seasons.
• Arid land cover is likely to expand, affecting ecosystems and biodiversity.
• Communities in Afghanistan are extremely vulnerable to climate-related hazards such as drought and flash flooding, compounded by poverty, inequality, and food insecurity.
• Climate change will place additional strain on urban populations, outdoor laborers, and the energy system, increasing health and economic risks.
• Comprehensive understanding of climate risks is limited by data and research gaps, hindering effective adaptation and disaster risk reduction.

COUNTRY OVERVIEW

Afghanistan is a landlocked country located at the intersection of Central, West, and South Asia. It has a diverse landscape, including the Hindu Kush mountain range (peaks up to 7,000 meters) and arid regions in the southwest. The country is ethnically and culturally diverse but remains largely rural and underdeveloped. Afghanistan has one of the highest poverty rates globally, with over 50% of the population living in poverty in 2017. The national poverty rate is 54.5%, and 29.9% of the population is undernourished. The agricultural sector contributes 42.5% of employment and 25.8% of GDP. Afghanistan is ranked 176th out of 181 countries in the ND-GAIN Index, indicating its high vulnerability to climate change.

CLIMATOLOGY

Climate Baseline

Afghanistan has an arid continental climate with significant seasonal variation in temperature and precipitation. The average temperature and rainfall patterns are shown in Figure 2 (1991–2020). Temperatures vary widely with altitude, and precipitation is influenced by large-scale climate phenomena like the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole.

Key Trends

• Temperature: Over the 20th century, Afghanistan experienced warming of over $1^{\circ}\mathrm{C}$. The Berkeley Earth dataset shows an average increase of $+1.5^{\circ}\mathrm{C}$ between 1900–1917 and 2000–2017.
• Precipitation: Precipitation trends show slight reductions in the west and less spring rainfall across all regions, but these changes are within natural variability and not conclusively linked to climate change.

Climate Future

Climate projections are based on the CMIP5 models, which consider four RCP scenarios: RCP2.6 (low emissions), RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5 (high emissions). Projections show consistent warming across all scenarios, with the highest rise under RCP8.5 reaching $5.5^{\circ}\mathrm{C}$ by the 2080s–2090s. Precipitation changes are less certain, with minimal changes in average rainfall but increased intensity of extreme events.

Model Ensemble

The projections are derived from 16 GCM models in the CMIP5 ensemble, which show a range of outcomes. Figure 4 and 5 illustrate the uncertainty in projections for temperature and precipitation under RCP8.5.

CLIMATE-RELATED NATURAL HAZARDS

Afghanistan is vulnerable to various climate-related hazards, including:

• Heat Waves: Expected to increase in frequency and intensity, posing risks to human health and outdoor labor.
• Drought: Increasing in frequency, particularly in southern and western regions during key agricultural seasons.
• Floods: Flash flooding is a significant risk, especially in mountainous areas, with potential impacts on infrastructure and communities.

CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS

Natural Resources

• Water: Changes in the rainfall regime and glacier melt could disrupt water and hydropower supplies. Drought conditions are likely to worsen.
• Land, Soil, and Biodiversity: Arid land cover is expected to expand, leading to ecosystem shifts and biodiversity loss.

Economic Sectors

• Agriculture: Drought and temperature extremes threaten crop yields and agricultural productivity, which is a major economic sector.
• Urban and Energy: Increased heat stress and extreme weather events will strain urban populations and energy systems, increasing the risk of heat-related illnesses and fatalities.

Communities

• Poverty, Inequality, and Vulnerability: Communities are highly vulnerable due to existing poverty, food insecurity, and inequality.
• Gender: Women and girls are disproportionately affected by climate-related impacts, including limited access to resources and increased health risks.
• Human Health: Higher temperatures and extreme weather events are expected to increase health risks, particularly for vulnerable populations.

POLICIES AND PROGRAMS

• National Adaptation Policies and Strategies: Afghanistan's NDC (2016) highlights the country's commitment to improving adaptation in key sectors such as agriculture, health, energy, and infrastructure.
• Climate Change Priorities of ADB and WBG: Both institutions prioritize climate resilience and adaptation in their development strategies. ADB's Strategy 2030 and WBG's Climate and Disaster Risk Screening Tool are key instruments for assessing and managing climate risks.
• Country Partnership Strategies: ADB and WBG have developed Country Partnership Strategies to guide climate-resilient development in Afghanistan.

GREEN, INCLUSIVE AND RESILIENT RECOVERY

The COVID-19 pandemic has exposed the vulnerability of Afghanistan's communities and highlighted the need for a green, inclusive, and resilient recovery. This includes prioritizing investments that enhance job creation, economic activity, and resilience to climate and other shocks. It also emphasizes biodiversity protection, social equity, and decarbonization of the economy.

CONCLUSION

Afghanistan is highly vulnerable to climate change due to its geographic, political, and socioeconomic conditions. The country faces significant temperature increases and changing precipitation patterns, which will impact ecosystems, communities, and economies. While both the World Bank Group and the Asian Development Bank are working to integrate climate action into development planning, the lack of data and research remains a major barrier to effective adaptation. The ND-GAIN Index and climate risk projections underscore the urgent need for targeted interventions to build resilience and address climate impacts in Afghanistan.