2015年-世界发展银行全球_Water_and_Climate_Adaptation_Plan_for_the_Sava_River_Basin___Annex_3_Guidance_Note_on_Adaptation_to_Climate_Change_for_Hydropower_12页_909kb

Summary of the Water & Climate Adaptation Plan for the Sava River Basin - Hydropower

Introduction

This guidance note provides recommendations for adapting hydropower facilities in the Sava River Basin (SRB) to climate change impacts. It is part of the Water and Climate Adaptation Plan (WATCAP), supported by the World Bank, and builds on previous studies, including the Integrated Water and Energy Nexus Study (IWENS) for the Vrbas River Basin, a tributary of the Sava River. The document outlines how climate change affects hydropower generation and offers strategies to integrate adaptation and mitigation measures into hydropower sector planning.

Climate Change Impact on Hydropower – Vulnerability Screening

Climate change impacts hydropower through changes in precipitation, temperature, and evaporation/evapotranspiration (ET), which influence river discharge, a key input for power generation. The main projected impacts include:

• Decreased or increased generation potential due to changes in precipitation and river runoff.
• Changes in energy demand for heating and cooling due to temperature variations.
• Decreased installed flow for facilities with high storage area/volume ratio and small reservoirs.
• Flooding and droughts may damage or destroy hydropower infrastructure, affecting social and economic stability.
• Energy security and production costs may be compromised.

Key parameters that influence vulnerability to climate change are:

• River discharge and mean flow (directly linked to power generation).
• Temporal variability in discharge (e.g., flood, drought, seasonal offset).
• Evaporation/ET which reduces available water for energy production.

The vulnerability of different hydropower plant (HPP) types is summarized in Table 1, indicating that reservoir and pumped storage dams are more vulnerable to changes in ET and river runoff than run-of-river schemes.

Scenarios for Climate Change in the Sava River Basin

Climate change scenarios for the SRB are based on simulations from five Global Climate Models (GCM) and Regional Climate Models (RCM) under the A1B SRES/IPCC scenario. The analysis covers three 30-year periods:

1. 1961-1990 (baseline)
2. 2011-2040 (near future)
3. 2041-2070 (distant future)

Projected Changes:

• Temperature is expected to increase by 1°C in the near future and 2.3°C in the distant future.
• Annual precipitation is projected to change between -6% to +4%, with seasonal changes ranging from -12% to +14% in the near future and -32% to +19% in the distant future.
• Seasonal variability shows an increasing trend in winter and decreasing in summer.

Case Study Results:

• Near future:
  • HPP Bočac shows a small decrease in energy production.
  • HPP Bajina Bašta and Zvornik show an increase, while Blanca shows no change.
  • Uncertainty is higher for Bočac, with a 4% decrease under CM4 and 9% increase under CM5.
• Distant future:
  • Energy production is expected to vary more significantly, with Bočac decreasing and Bajina Bašta increasing.
  • Seasonal analysis for Bajina Bašta shows a decrease in spring and summer and an increase in winter and fall.

Adaptation and Mitigation Guidelines

The document outlines structural and non-structural adaptation measures to address climate change impacts on the hydropower sector in the SRB.

Structural Adaptation Measures:

• Improve dam structural parameters (e.g., diverting tributaries, modifying spillways, adjusting turbine types).
• Construct robust dams with large reservoirs to handle extreme events.
• Design flexible capacity to respond to changing water availability.
• Plan and implement structural measures before construction, considering all reservoir uses (e.g., irrigation, water supply, tourism).

Non-structural Adaptation Measures:

• Integrate ecological considerations into hydropower planning to minimize environmental impacts.
• Reduce energy demand through public awareness and energy efficiency training.
• Improve hydrological forecasting to optimize HPP operations and capacity utilization.
• Enhance operation and maintenance practices at power stations.
• Incorporate future generation capacity into design, based on local climate projections.
• Use pumped storage technology to better match supply and demand.
• Adopt integrated water and disaster management approaches.
• Integrate climate change into the management of hydropower systems.
• Replace inefficient lighting with low-energy alternatives.
• Assess and utilize other renewable energy sources such as solar and wind.
• Conduct in-depth climate variation analysis for the HPP's operational lifetime.
• Identify cost-effective designs and modifications for specific risks.
• Regularly review permits and licenses for HPPs to ensure alignment with future flow regimes and water levels.
• Incorporate climate change into existing codes and guidelines for hydropower.
• Establish mandatory reporting mechanisms for hydropower companies to improve data collection and monitoring.
• Develop guiding principles for integrating environmental aspects into HPP operations and planning.
• Implement strict rules for water discharge and withdrawal to protect river ecosystems.

Key Information

• Hydropower's importance in the SRB is significant, with an average 45% share of total electricity consumption (Table 3).
• Climate change is expected to reduce overall hydropower production, though not severely, in the SRB.
• Adaptation and mitigation are essential to maintain energy security and economic stability.
• Uncertainty in climate projections increases with the time horizon, requiring flexible and adaptive planning.

References

The guidance note is based on the following sources:

1. Blackshear et al. (2011) - Hydropower Vulnerability and Climate Change
2. COWI (2012, 2013) - Water Resources Management and Hydrological Models
3. ISRBC (2013) - Sava River Basin Management Plan and Integration of Water Protection
4. UNECE (2009) - Guidance on Water and Climate Change Adaptation
5. U.S. Energy Information Administration (2010) - International Energy Statistics
6. USAID (2007) - Adapting to Climate Variability and Change
7. Vuković et al. (2004) - Status of Hydropower Development on the Drina River
8. Company websites providing HPP specifications and dam data.

Conclusion

The Sava River Basin is expected to face climate-induced changes in precipitation and temperature, which will affect hydropower generation. While some plants may see increases in production, others may experience decreases, especially those with small reservoirs and run-of-river designs. To ensure resilience, adaptation and mitigation strategies should be implemented now, including both structural and non-structural measures, and integrated water and energy management approaches.