联合国《亚洲及太平洋经济社会概览》-164页_23mb

Economic and Social Survey of Asia and the Pacific 2023: Rethinking Public Debt for the Sustainable Development Goals

Core Content

The Economic and Social Survey of Asia and the Pacific 2023 focuses on the role of public debt in achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and the need to rethink traditional debt management approaches in the context of economic and social challenges.

Main Viewpoints

• Economic Weakness and Debt Risks:

  • Post-pandemic economic performance in Asia and the Pacific has been weak, with average output growth at 3.3% in 2022, lower than pre-pandemic levels.
  • High inflation and rising interest rates have increased fiscal and debt stress, especially in developing economies.
  • The risk of public debt distress is significant due to limited fiscal resources, uncertain economic outlook, and rising financing costs.

• Debt and Development Nexus:

  • The relationship between public debt and development is being re-evaluated.
  • High debt levels do not necessarily lead to debt distress or hinder economic growth.
  • Public debt can be a powerful tool for sustainable development if used effectively and strategically.

• Fiscal Policy and Debt Management:

  • Fiscal policy must complement monetary policy to manage inflation and support vulnerable populations.
  • Expansion of fiscal space is crucial for investment in health, education, and social protection.
  • Effective debt management includes improving transparency, enhancing productivity of public investments, and developing domestic capital markets.

• Climate and Development:

  • Climate-related financing needs are increasing, particularly for vulnerable countries.
  • Investment in clean energy and climate adaptation is essential for reducing long-term risks and promoting sustainable development.

• Need for Innovation in Debt Analysis:

  • The Survey proposes an "augmented" approach to debt sustainability analysis that incorporates SDG investment needs and climate considerations.
  • This approach allows for a more comprehensive assessment of debt sustainability, considering both short-term and long-term impacts.

Key Information

• Region Overview:

  • Asia and the Pacific are home to 4.3 billion people, three out of every five on Earth.
  • The region has seen a significant rise in public debt, with the average government debt-to-GDP ratio reaching 49.5% in 2021.

• Debt Distress:

  • 19 countries are currently at high risk of debt distress.
  • Some countries with low debt levels still face high debt distress due to structural and institutional weaknesses.

• Policy Recommendations:

  • Policymakers should adopt a more holistic and long-term perspective on public debt.
  • Countries need to improve fiscal institutions, transparency, and resource mobilization to manage debt effectively.
  • The international community should support debt restructuring and resolution mechanisms, especially for vulnerable economies.

• Mongolia Case Study:

  • Mongolia's debt sustainability analysis shows that a combination of development investments and strategic financing can reduce debt over time.
  • The augmented approach highlights that sustainable development outcomes can be achieved even with higher debt levels, provided the investments are aligned with long-term goals.

Conclusion

The Survey emphasizes that public debt can be a strategic investment in sustainable development, provided it is managed with transparency, efficiency, and long-term vision. It calls for a shift in conventional thinking and the development of new frameworks that take into account the specific needs of countries in the region, especially in light of climate change and the need to achieve the SDGs by 2030.