ESCAP：2023年亚洲及太平洋经济社会概览_164页_24mb

Economic and Social Survey of Asia and the Pacific 2023: Rethinking Public Debt for the Sustainable Development Goals

Core Content

The Economic and Social Survey of Asia and the Pacific 2023 highlights the critical role of public debt in achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and underscores the need for a rethinking of the public debt-development relationship in the face of current economic challenges.

Key Challenges

• Economic Weakness: Post-pandemic economic growth in Asia and the Pacific has been weak, with average output growth at 3.3% in 2022, lower than pre-pandemic levels.
• High Inflation: Inflation in the region reached 7.6% in 2022, the highest since 1998, and is expected to remain elevated at 5.9% in 2023.
• Fiscal Stress: Rising interest rates and weak growth prospects have increased fiscal and debt stress, especially in developing economies.
• Debt Distress Risk: 19 countries are currently rated at high risk of debt distress, with some having low debt levels but high vulnerability due to structural and institutional weaknesses.
• Climate and Development Pressures: Climate-related financing needs and development deficits are putting additional strain on public finances, particularly in vulnerable countries.

Main Viewpoints

• Public Debt is Not Inherently Harmful: High debt levels do not necessarily equate to higher debt distress or hinder economic growth. Strategic public debt can be a tool for sustainable development.
• Need for a New Debt Assessment Framework: Traditional methods of assessing public debt sustainability are insufficient. A more "augmented" approach is required, incorporating SDG financing needs, structural development policies, and climate considerations.
• Balancing Fiscal and Development Goals: Policymakers must balance fiscal consolidation with investment in SDGs to avoid long-term adverse impacts on inequality and poverty.
• Fiscal Space and Productivity: Increasing fiscal revenues and improving the effectiveness and efficiency of public spending are essential to expand fiscal space and reduce debt distress.
• Role of Domestic and International Markets: Domestic capital markets are crucial for financing development and financial inclusion, while international markets can be used to meet large financing needs but require careful risk management.
• Debt Restructuring and Resolution: Timely and effective debt restructuring mechanisms are needed, especially for countries in debt distress. This includes collective action clauses and state-contingent clauses in sovereign borrowing contracts.

Key Recommendations

• Adopt an Augmented Debt Sustainability Analysis: This should consider SDG financing needs, structural policies, and climate adaptation and mitigation.
• Promote Domestic Capital Markets: To reduce reliance on foreign borrowing and enhance financial inclusion.
• Strengthen International Debt Resolution Frameworks: Improve coordination among creditors, especially unconventional ones, and support the adoption of more robust restructuring mechanisms.
• Enhance Fiscal Transparency and Governance: To improve early detection of debt risks and support effective restructuring.
• Increase Cross-Border Development Transfers: To help poor and vulnerable countries meet their large financing needs and avoid excessive debt burdens.

Summary of Policy Options

• Improve Revenue Mobilization: Increase tax revenues and non-tax revenues to expand fiscal space.
• Enhance Public Spending Efficiency: Targeted subsidies and cash transfers can reduce the cost of living for poor households.
• Develop Domestic Debt Markets: Improve financial inclusion and reduce exposure to foreign exchange risk.
• Leverage International Debt Markets: Use international borrowing to meet large development needs, but with risk mitigation measures.
• Implement Debt Restructuring Mechanisms: Use collective action clauses and state-contingent clauses to facilitate smoother and more equitable restructuring.
• Promote Climate-Resilient Investments: Allocate resources to climate adaptation, mitigation, and disaster response to reduce long-term vulnerabilities.

Conclusion

The 2023 Economic and Social Survey calls for a fundamental shift in how public debt is viewed and managed in Asia and the Pacific. It argues that public debt, when used strategically and with a long-term perspective, can be a powerful driver of sustainable development. However, this requires a more nuanced and comprehensive approach to debt sustainability analysis, one that integrates development goals, climate resilience, and fiscal policy. The Survey also emphasizes the importance of international cooperation in developing fair and effective debt resolution frameworks.