2023-03-14-IMF-评估供应中断对全球大流行性复苏的影响（英）_42页_927kb

Assessing the Impact of Supply Disruptions on the Global Pandemic Recovery

Summary:
This working paper evaluates the role of supply-side disruptions during the COVID-19 pandemic and recovery, focusing on their impact on global economic activity and inflation.

Key Findings:

1. Dual Forces: Economic swings during and after the pandemic were driven by a combination of supply and demand factors, not just conventional demand shocks.
2. Analysis Focus: The study concentrates on 2021 as the peak year for supply disruptions, minimizing the blurring effects from the Ukraine invasion.
3. Methodology: Two complementary approaches were used:
   • Sign-Reduced Vector Autoregression (SVAR): Analyzed manufacturing PMI data (New Orders & Suppliers' Delivery Times) to identify and quantify supply and demand shocks globally, regionally (Advanced Economies, Emerging Markets), and individually.
   • IMF G20 Model: Assessed the contribution of supply shocks to output and core inflation surprises relative to pre-pandemic projections.
4. Impact on Output:
   • Supply shocks negatively impacted manufacturing, trade, and overall GDP. They are estimated to have subtracted 0.5-1.2 percentage points from global GDP growth compared to projections in 2021. Impacts were heterogeneous, with some regions like Germany and the Euro Area experiencing larger losses.
5. Impact on Inflation:
   • Supply shocks pushed up global core inflation by approximately 1 percentage point in 2021, aligning with observed inflation surges not solely driven by demand factors.
6. Drivers: Supply bottlenecks stemmed from surging post-pandemic demand, logistical jam-ups, shortages of intermediate inputs (especially microchips in auto/aerospace), and labor constraints.
7. Supply Shocks Trend: Global supply disruptions eased towards the end of 2021, accompanying the cooling of global demand.
8. Phillips Curve Sensitivity: Results were sensitive to the assumed slope of the Phillips curve, particularly regarding the inflation impact in the US, reflecting non-linear inflation dynamics discussed in recent literature.

Conclusion: Supply disruptions were a significant constraint on the global recovery from the pandemic slump in 2021. While both methodologies pointed to substantial negative drag on output (0.5-1.2 pp to global GDP) and positive contribution to inflation (1 pp), heterogeneity exists across regions. The analysis underscores the importance of understanding supply-side constraints in analyzing post-COVID economic performance.