国际战略研究中心-制造商的困境：大流行世界中的再就业和恢复力（英）-2021.11-36页_868kb

The Manufacturer's Dilemma: Reshoring and Resiliency in a Pandemic World

Core Content

This report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) explores the challenges and strategies faced by manufacturers in the United States during the pandemic, focusing on the transformer and HVAC industries. It examines the shift from globalization to resiliency and reshoring, and how these industries have responded to supply chain disruptions.

Main Viewpoints

• Reshoring involves moving production back to domestic borders to reduce reliance on foreign manufacturing.
• Resiliency refers to the ability of supply chains to withstand and recover from disruptions.
• Nearshoring is a strategy that relocates production to nearby countries, balancing cost and risk.

Key Information

1. Reshoring, Resiliency, and Nearshoring

• Reshoring is often seen as a costly and less feasible strategy due to high labor and material costs.
• Resiliency involves investing in redundant systems, multiple suppliers, and diversified transportation methods to ensure continuity.
• Nearshoring offers a middle ground, reducing transportation costs and some supply chain risks while maintaining access to international markets.

2. Industry Overview

Transformers

• Function: Transformers regulate voltage levels in power transmission and distribution systems.
• Market Size: In 2019, the global power transformer market was valued at $27.7 billion.
• U.S. Market: U.S. transformer sales amounted to $4.42 billion in 2019, with major players like General Electric, Siemens, and Mitsubishi.
• Supply Chain: Transformers are custom-made, requiring extensive component procurement from global suppliers, including steel from China and copper from South America.
• Labor Costs: Labor represents about 36% of total costs in the U.S. transformer industry.

HVACs

• Function: HVAC systems regulate temperature and air quality in buildings.
• Market Size: The global HVAC market was valued at $127.4 billion in 2020, with the U.S. market being one of the largest consumers.
• U.S. Market: Major manufacturers include Carrier Corporation, Daikin Industries, and Lennox International.
• Supply Chain: Relies heavily on imported raw materials like aluminum and copper, with a fragmented market due to high competition and numerous contractors.
• Labor Impact: The HVAC industry faced significant labor shortages, especially in 2020, with a 9% drop in employment compared to 2019.

3. Pandemic-Induced Supply Chain Challenges

• Labor Shortages: Both industries experienced severe labor shortages, with workers being laid off or furloughed due to pandemic-related risks.
• Material Shortages: Rising prices and reduced availability of raw materials like steel and copper disrupted production.
• Transportation Bottlenecks: Border closures and logistics challenges caused delays in the delivery of components.
• Changing Demand: The pandemic altered consumer and business demand, with a shift toward improved indoor air quality and energy efficiency.

4. Government Approaches and Policies

• Executive Branch: Promotes "Buy American" and clean energy initiatives to enhance supply chain resilience.
• Legislative Branch: Supports policies aimed at reducing trade deficits and increasing domestic manufacturing capacity.
• National Security: Encourages the development of resilient supply chains to safeguard against future disruptions.

Conclusion

• The report highlights that while reshoring is a viable option for some firms, it is generally seen as too costly and less feasible for the transformer and HVAC industries.
• Resiliency and nearshoring are preferred strategies to balance cost, efficiency, and risk.
• The pandemic has underscored the need for more flexible and robust supply chains, especially in critical sectors like energy and building systems.

About the Authors

• William Reinsch, Emily Benson, Jasmine Lim, Anthony Hokayem, and Sarah Mortensen are the authors of the report.
• The report is part of the CSIS Scholl Chair in International Business series, funded by the Alcoa Foundation.

Summary of Industry Responses

• Transformers: Firms focused on resiliency and nearshoring due to the high cost and complexity of reshoring.
• HVACs: Similar to transformers, firms emphasized resiliency and nearshoring, citing the high cost of raw materials and labor as barriers to reshoring.

Key Takeaways

• The pandemic has exposed vulnerabilities in global supply chains, prompting a reevaluation of strategies.
• Reshoring is not a practical solution for all industries, especially those reliant on imported raw materials.
• Resiliency and nearshoring are more sustainable options for enhancing supply chain stability and efficiency.