世界银行-更高的高度_在欧洲和中亚增长到高收入（英）-2025_188页_6mb

Greater Heights Summary

Introduction

• Middle-Income Trap Concerns: Ten ECA countries (Croatia, Czech Republic, Estonia, Greece, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovak Republic) have reached high-income status. However, improving economic growth rates and convergence to high income have slowed post-2009.
• Income Gap: Despite progress, ECA countries lag other regions in closing the convergence gap, with limited prospects for passing the high-income threshold soon.
• Policy Shift: Recommendations emphasize moving to an 'infusion' and 'innovation' strategy at country-specific paces.

Three Drivers of Growth

1. Investment: Foundational reform to boost efficiency, though ECA countries lag globally in R&D.
2. Infusion: Integration into global markets, facilitated by stronger business environments, improved logistics,
   and liberalized trade.
3. Innovation: Transition to Schumpeterian creative destruction through new firm creation and adaptation.

Historical Income Convergence

• Successful convergence via EU accession helped several countries, but others, especially those without EU integration, face slow progress.
• Middle-Income Trap: Many ECA countries may be experiencing stagnation due to diminishing returns on foundational reforms and global challenges.

Enterprises and Productivity

• Small Firm Dominance: High numbers of small, low-productivity firms and challenges scaling through exit/jobs.
• Emissions and Energy: High energy intensity and subsidies hamper innovation; improvements needed in R&D and education.

Talent and Social Mobility

• Diminishing Educational Quality: Basic education performance has declined, with a two-third drop in PISA scores since 2012; vocational education often yields poor outcomes.
• Social Mobility Declines: Upward intergenerational mobility in education decreased significantly, limiting talent allocation.

Energy

• Energy Inefficiency: High energy intensity compared to other regions.
• Transition Imperative: Expanding renewable energy, improving efficiency; phasing out subsidies and price right.

Policy Recommendations

• Strengthen business dynamism, competition policy, and the linkage between education and workforce skills.
• Promote merit-based talent policies, create bilateral migration agreements, and reduce fossil fuel subsidies.
• Enhance the business environment to foster global integration and innovation.

Concluding Thoughts

• Achieving high-income status demands productivity growth, cautious reforms, and effective policy implementation.