2017年-普华永道全球_Staying_ahead_Central_banks_in_a_multi-mandate_environment_24页_677kb

报告摘要

Summary of "Staying ahead: Central banks in a multi-mandate environment"

Core Content

This report summarises insights from PwC's 13th annual Central Bank Forum held in 2016, focusing on the evolving challenges and responsibilities of central banks in a complex, multi-mandate environment. The discussion highlights the increasing political and social scrutiny on central banks, the limitations of conventional monetary policy, and the need for new strategies and frameworks to navigate the current landscape.

Main Viewpoints

1. The Changing Landscape of Central Banking

Central banks are now operating in a more complex and politicised environment, moving away from the 'Great Moderation' to a period of uncertainty and multiple mandates.
The global financial crisis (2007/2008) has left lasting impacts, and new risks such as climate change, cyber vulnerability, and migration continue to challenge central banks.
The post-crisis recovery has been uneven, leading to growing public frustration and a questioning of the effectiveness of monetary stimulus.

2. Policy Dilemmas and Public Perception

Central banks are under pressure to balance economic growth, financial stability, and public trust.
The low base rates and high capital requirements have reduced profitability for banks and limited their ability to cut costs and consolidate.
There is a growing concern that the current monetary policy framework may not be sustainable long-term, and could lead to asset inflation and reduced returns for savers.

3. Independence and Credibility

Central bank independence, once a cornerstone of their role, is increasingly challenged by political and public pressures.
Some argue that central banks should adopt a broader, more inclusive mandate that focuses on the long-term financial health of the economy.
Maintaining credibility and public support is seen as more critical than having the most advanced tools or mandates.

4. Communication and Public Engagement

Effective communication is essential to sustain public trust and understanding.
Central banks are encouraged to engage with opinion formers in politics and media to explain their policies and invite public debate.
Financial education and literacy are proposed as key tools to help the public understand the role and impact of central banks.

5. FinTech and Digital Transformation

The rise of FinTech is reshaping the financial services landscape, creating new opportunities for innovation and inclusion.
Central banks must adapt to this digital shift by investing in data systems, analytical capabilities, and digital infrastructure.
Regulatory technology (RegTech) is expected to enhance transparency, risk management, and the ability to monitor market activities in real-time.

Key Information

Challenges: Central banks face a range of challenges, including prolonged low interest rates, bloated balance sheets, rising public expectations, and the politicisation of their role.
Emerging Risks: Cyber vulnerability, climate change, and migration are becoming critical issues that could threaten financial stability.
Inflation Targeting: The traditional 2% inflation target is being questioned, with some participants suggesting a reverse target of 2% interest rates and 0% inflation as a more viable alternative.
FinTech Impact: FinTech is driving innovation and financial inclusion but also complicating regulatory oversight. Payments, blockchain, and smart contracts are seen as key areas for transformation.
Regulatory Shifts: New regulatory frameworks such as IFRS 9 and Basel IV are increasing transparency and prudential safeguards, but also raising compliance and cost pressures.

Conclusion

The report concludes that central banks must evolve to meet the demands of a more complex and politicised environment. They need to balance independence with collaboration, maintain credibility through effective communication, and embrace digital transformation to remain relevant and effective. The future of central banking lies in adapting to new realities while ensuring the long-term stability and prosperity of the economies they serve.