2024-09-23-世界银行-全球灾后快速损失评估（GRADE）报告_2024年飓风贝里尔-格林纳达_截至2024年8月1日的报告（英）_37页_1mb

Summary of the GRADE Report: Hurricane Beryl 2024 in Grenada

Core Content

This GRADE (Global Rapid Post-Disaster Damage Estimation) report provides an estimate of the direct economic damage caused by Hurricane Beryl in Grenada, based on a rapid and remote post-disaster assessment. The report is intended to support early decision-making and recovery planning, but it is not a substitute for detailed on-the-ground analysis.

Key Findings

• Total estimated economic damage: US$ 218.0 million (XCD 589 million), equivalent to 16.5% of Grenada's 2023 GDP.
• Excluded items: Damage to boats and vessels (fishing or recreational).
• Impact distribution:
  • Carriacou and Petit Martinique were the most affected islands.
  • Northern islands (Carriacou and Petit Martinique) accounted for 82% of total damages (excluding agriculture).
  • Mainland Grenada experienced less severe damage, with 0.009% of homes damaged.
• Damage sectors:
  • Building damage (residential and non-residential) accounted for ~50% of total damage.
  • Infrastructure damage accounted for ~30% of total damage, including power, telecommunications, water networks, jetties, and coastal infrastructure.
  • Agricultural damage accounted for ~20% of total damage, particularly affecting crops like nutmeg, livestock, and small-scale irrigation systems.
• Fatalities and disruptions:
  • Four fatalities were reported on Carriacou.
  • Power and communication networks were severely impacted, with ongoing restoration efforts as of July 25, 2024.
  • Environmental damage was extensive, including the loss of vegetation, mangrove destruction, and disruption of the fishing industry.

Methodology

• The GRADE methodology is used to provide a rapid first-order approximation of damage.
• No full catastrophe modeling was employed due to the relatively small scale of the impacted area and the team's familiarity with the country context.
• The methodology includes four stages:
  1. Development of an updated exposure model.
  2. Collection and cross-checking of damage data using virtual damage surveying.
  3. Comparison with historical event damage estimates.
  4. Calibration, modeling, and validation of the results.
• The exposure model includes residential, non-residential, and infrastructure assets. The total replacement value of these assets is estimated at US$ 6.441 billion.
• Residential buildings on Carriacou and Petit Martinique were heavily impacted, with severe and destroyed categories accounting for 38% and 24%, respectively, on Carriacou, and 24% and 26%, respectively, on Petit Martinique.
• Non-residential buildings on Carriacou had 37% severe damage and 9% destroyed, while on Petit Martinique, 50% severe damage and 0% destroyed.
• Agricultural damage was not broken down by island or parish due to a lack of detailed data.

Context and Background

• Grenada is a multi-island country in the southern Lesser Antilles, with 8 smaller islands, of which only Carriacou and Petit Martinique are inhabited.
• 2023 GDP was US$ 1.32 billion, with a GDP per capita of US$ 10,464.
• The economy has shifted from agriculture to tourism-related services, with service exports reaching US$ 788 million in 2023.
• Population distribution:
  • 103,532 people on the main island of Grenada.
  • 4,218 on Carriacou.
  • 526 on Petit Martinique.
  • 41% of the population resides in Saint George's.
• Vulnerability factors:
  • Physical vulnerability: Less resilient buildings and infrastructure.
  • Social vulnerability: Socioeconomic disparities and lack of access to resources.

Historical Context

• Hurricane Lenny (1999): Estimated damage of US$ 96.4 million (27% of 1999 GDP).
• Hurricane Ivan (2004): Estimated damage of US$ 788 million (133% of 2004 GDP), with 80% of housing stock damaged.
• Hurricane Emily (2005): Damage of US$ 44.9 million (7.5% of 2004 GDP).
• Heavy rainstorms (April 2011): Damage of US$ 4.15 million (0.5% of 2010 GDP).

Data Sources and Collaboration

• The report was prepared with support from the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR) and the Government of Japan.
• Peer reviewers included specialists from the World Bank and other agencies.
• Data sources included:
  • Government of Grenada and NaDMA.
  • GCSO (Grenada Central Statistics Office).
  • CDEMA and NOAA.
  • Copernicus Emergency Mapping Service.
  • Open Street Map (OSM).
  • Social media, aerial imagery, and drone videos.
• Unbreakable model estimates that households would lose 15.3% of annual consumption due to the need for reconstruction and potential income loss.

Limitations and Notes

• The GRADE assessment is a remote-based estimate and may not be fully accurate at the individual asset level.
• Confidence is higher at the regional level, but lower at the asset level.
• The report does not include indirect losses such as business interruption or recovery needs.
• The damage levels are based on satellite imagery, virtual surveys, and collaborative data sources.
• Recovery efforts are ongoing, especially for power and communication restoration.

Conclusion

• Hurricane Beryl caused catastrophic damage in Carriacou and Petit Martinique, with significant impacts on infrastructure, agriculture, and social systems.
• The economic impact is substantial, but less severe than Hurricane Ivan (2004) due to the location of the strongest winds.
• The report serves as an initial estimate to guide recovery and reconstruction efforts, with more detailed analysis expected in the coming months.

Key Tables and Figures

• Table 1: Summary of direct economic damage by island/parish.
• Table 2: Summary of significant historical hydrometeorological events.
• Table 3: Damage levels for residential and non-residential buildings.
• Table 4: Exposure values by island/parish.
• Table 5 and 6: Residential and non-residential damage estimates from the virtual survey.
• Figures 1–5: Provide geospatial and damage distribution insights.