经合组织《2021年第二季度国际贸易趋势》-7页_415kb

G20 Trade Summary - Q2 2021

Core Content

The second quarter of 2021 marked a significant increase in G20 merchandise trade, reaching a new high after record levels in Q1. However, growth rates slowed compared to the previous quarter. The rise in commodity prices, shipping congestion, and supply chain issues played a key role in the trade growth. In services trade, growth accelerated in Q2, with exports and imports rising by 4.5% and 4.0%, respectively, compared to Q1.

Key Trends in Merchandise Trade

Overall Growth

• Exports: Increased by 4.1% compared to Q1, but slower than the 8.6% growth in Q1.
• Imports: Rose by 6.4%, also slower than the 8.5% growth in Q1.
• G20 Trade Value: Reached a new high in Q2, with exports at $4,212.9 billion and imports at $4,251.9 billion.

Country-Specific Growth

• Australia: Exports up by 10.0%, driven by cereals, metals, and coal. Imports grew by 0.8%.
• Brazil: Exports surged by 29.4%, mainly due to iron ores and soybeans. Imports increased by 13.7%.
• Russia: Exports rose by 30.7%, largely due to higher energy prices. Imports increased by 13.9%.
• United States: Exports grew by 6.8%, led by aircraft, pharmaceuticals, and semiconductors. Imports increased by 4.2%.
• Canada: Exports up by 4.7%, imports by 3.6%.
• Mexico: Exports up by 3.3%, imports by 5.1%.
• China: Exports declined by 2.5% after a sharp 18.6% increase in Q1, but imports continued to grow by 10.9%.
• Japan and Korea: Exports grew by 2.7% and 2.2%, respectively, while imports rose by 7.4% and 11.8%.

Key Trends in Services Trade

Overall Growth

• Exports: Grew by 4.5% compared to Q1.
• Imports: Rose by 4.0% compared to Q1.
• G20 Services Trade Value: Reached $1,116.1 billion in exports and $996.9 billion in imports in Q2.

Country-Specific Growth

• United States: Exports up by 3.6%, imports by 7.2%.
• Canada: Exports grew by 1.7%, imports by 8.0%.
• Brazil: Exports and imports both increased by 6.8% and 5.5%, respectively.
• France: Exports rose by 5.6%, imports remained almost flat at 0.4%.
• Germany: Exports up by 4.2%, imports by 5.4%.
• United Kingdom: Trade in services contracted by 0.4% for exports and 2.2% for imports.
• Russia: Exports rose by 5.7%, imports contracted by 7.3%.
• Turkey: Exports and imports increased by 5.8% and 2.3%, respectively.
• Korea: Exports and imports both increased by 8.1% and 15.9%, respectively, with travel imports rising sharply by 20.1%.
• Japan: Exports up by 4.7%, imports by 8.4%.
• China: Exports increased by 7.4%, imports by 2.3%.

Summary of Key Factors

• Commodity Prices: Played a major role in driving merchandise trade growth, especially for economies reliant on primary commodities.
• Shipping Costs: Continued to rise, boosting trade in transport services.
• Digital Services: Maintained strong performance, particularly in telecommunications and computer services.
• Travel Recovery: Showed signs of improvement despite ongoing pandemic restrictions and the threat of new variants.
• Preliminary Estimates: Services trade data for Q2 2021 is based on preliminary information, covering about 60% of the G20 aggregate.

Conclusion

Q2 2021 saw the G20 merchandise trade reach a new high, with a slowdown in growth compared to Q1, largely due to rising commodity prices and supply chain disruptions. Services trade also showed a marked increase, driven by transport and digital services, with travel showing signs of recovery. The data highlights a mix of strong and weak performances across G20 economies, influenced by global demand and domestic economic conditions.