20220704-IMF-Central_African_Economic_and_Monetary_Community_Common_Policies_in_Support_of_Member_Countries_Reform_Programs-Staff_Report,_and_Statement_by_the_Executive_Director_53页_9mb

报告摘要

Summary of the CEMAC Staff Report and Executive Director Statement

Core Content

The Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CEMAC) is a regional bloc comprising six countries: Cameroon, Chad, Congo, Gabon, Equatorial Guinea, and the Central African Republic. The report outlines common policies aimed at supporting IMF-supported reform programs in these countries, emphasizing the need for fiscal prudence, monetary stability, and structural reforms to enhance economic resilience and growth.

The IMF Staff Report and Executive Director Statement, prepared in June 2022, analyze the economic outlook and risks for the CEMAC region. It highlights the positive impact of elevated oil prices on the region’s fiscal and external buffers, while also acknowledging the heightened external uncertainties due to global factors such as the war in Ukraine, global inflation, financial tightening, and cryptoasset risks.

Main Views and Policy Recommendations

1. Economic Outlook and Risks

Fragile External Position: CEMAC ended 2021 with gross reserves at 2.7 months of prospective imports, the lowest net foreign assets (NFA) in decades, despite IMF financing, SDR allocation, and monetary policy tightening.
Positive Oil Price Shock: The war in Ukraine has led to higher oil prices, which are expected to positively impact CEMAC's external balances, provided fiscal policies remain prudent.
Inflationary Pressures: Inflation is projected to rise to 3.3% in 2022, slightly above the 3% convergence criterion, due to global inflation, price controls, and implicit subsidies.
Uncertainties Remain: Risks include global financial tightening, new COVID strains, cryptoasset volatility, and sanctions from the war in Ukraine, which could negatively affect growth and trigger social unrest.

2. Policy Recommendations

Leverage High Oil Prices: Use oil revenues to rebuild fiscal and external buffers, avoiding pro-cyclical spending and ensuring prudent fiscal management.
Strengthen Social Safety Nets: Implement targeted cash transfers and streamline fuel subsidies to protect vulnerable populations from rising energy and food prices.
Maintain Prudent Monetary Policy: Continue monetary tightening and liquidity management to anchor inflation expectations and support external stability.
Normalize Prudential Framework: Ensure banks account for sovereign risk and reinforce capital conservation buffers to mitigate financial risks.
Address Cryptoasset Risks: The COBAC decision to prohibit cryptoassets as legal tender helps reduce risks, but a collective political solution is needed to address unilateral adoption.
Accelerate Structural Reforms: Focus on non-oil revenue collection, public infrastructure upgrades, governance improvements, and economic diversification away from fossil fuels.
Improve Regional Surveillance: Strengthen regional policy coordination, enhance transparency, and ensure compliance with convergence criteria.

Key Information

Regional Economic Performance

GDP Growth: Projected to rise to 4.2% in 2022, driven by non-oil sector recovery, improved terms of trade, and relaxed containment measures.
Fiscal Deficit: Narrowed to 2% of GDP in 2021, from 3.1% in 2020, due to higher oil revenues and fiscal restraint.
Public Debt: Reduced to 58.1% of GDP in 2021, from 60% in 2020.

Monetary Policy

BEAC Tightened Policy: Increased the policy rate by 25 basis points in November 2021, and 50 basis points in March 2022, to 4%.
Liquidity Management: Reduced weekly liquidity injections from CFAF 250 billion to CFAF 160 billion by April 2022, and increased haircuts on government securities to pre-pandemic levels.
Liquidity Absorption Window: Used to increase attractiveness for banks, with collateral requirements raised to 0.75%.

Regional Policy Assurances

NFA Target for 2021: Missed by EUR 35.1 million, due to budget support shortfalls.
NFA Target for 2022: Expected to reach EUR 2.81 billion by end-June 2022, requiring discipline in repatriating export proceeds and continued fiscal prudence.

SDR Usage

SDR Allocation: CEMAC member countries used most of the 2021 SDR allocation (CFAF 797 billion).
SDR Use Strategy: Countries with stronger fiscal positions saved half of their SDR for reserves buildup, while others used it for social spending and debt clearance.

External Financing

IMF Financing: Projected to be EUR 1,471 million by end-2022, with some countries drawing emergency assistance.
Budget Support: Expected to increase in 2022, but still below target levels.
Commercial Borrowing: Reduced significantly, with Eurobond issuance at zero in 2022.

Structural Reforms and Governance

Progress on Reforms: Slow implementation of PFM (Public Financial Management) reforms and treasury single accounts (TSA) rollout, expected for 2022Q3.
PFM Challenges: Capacity constraints hinder progress, and reforms need to be accelerated.
Regional Coordination: PREF-CEMAC and COBAC are key institutions in policy coordination and reform monitoring.
Governance and Transparency: Emphasis on improving governance, financial integrity, and transparency to enhance investor confidence and reduce risks.

Conclusion

The CEMAC region is in a fragile economic position, but the positive oil price shock offers a unique opportunity to rebuild reserves and fiscal buffers, provided policies remain prudent. The report underscores the importance of structural reforms, monetary discipline, and social protection measures to ensure sustainable recovery and inclusive growth. Contingency planning and collective political action are also emphasized to address external uncertainties and cryptoasset risks.