20220410-IMF-Republic_of_Kazakhstan_2021_Article_IV_Consultation-Press_Release_Staff_Report_Staff_Statement_and_Statement_by_the_Executive_Director_for_Kazakhstan_66页_1mb

报告摘要

2021 Article IV Consultation Summary: Republic of Kazakhstan

Core Content

The 2021 Article IV Consultation of the Republic of Kazakhstan, conducted by the IMF, assessed the country's economic recovery from the pandemic, the impact of external shocks, and the need for structural reforms to ensure long-term sustainable growth. The consultation concluded on April 4, 2022, following discussions in November 2021 and remote meetings in early 2022. Key documents include the Staff Report, Press Release, Staff Statement, and Statement by the Executive Director.

Main Views and Key Information

Economic Recovery and Impact of Shocks

Growth: Kazakhstan's economy recovered from the initial effects of the pandemic, with real GDP growth of 4% in 2021, following a 2.5% decline in 2020.
Inflation: Inflation remained above the National Bank of Kazakhstan's (NBK) target band of 4-6%, reaching 8.4% in 2021 and 8.7% in February 2022, driven by food prices.
Sanctions Impact: Spillovers from the war in Ukraine and sanctions on Russia are expected to hamper growth in 2022 and increase inflationary pressures.
Social Unrest: The January 2022 social protests led to reforms addressing income inequality, corruption, and public sector governance, including freezing energy prices and introducing price controls.

Fiscal Policy

Fiscal Consolidation: Authorities plan to return to fiscal consolidation to preserve buffers once the recovery is entrenched.
Fiscal Rules: A new set of fiscal rules was introduced to promote sustainability, intergenerational equity, and countercyclical policy.
Fiscal Deficits: In 2020, fiscal deficits reached 7% and 10.5% of GDP, while in 2021, they were 4% and 9.4% of GDP, respectively. The deficits were financed through the National Fund for Reserve Capital (NFRK), debt issuance, and international loans.
Anti-Crisis Measures: These included increased public spending, tax exemptions, and subsidized credit programs.

Monetary Policy

Policy Rate: The NBK raised its policy rate to 10.25% by early 2022 and further to 13.5% in March 2022 due to inflationary pressures and external shocks.
Inflation Targeting: The transition to a full-fledged inflation targeting regime is ongoing, with a focus on enhancing transparency and central bank independence.
Exchange Rate Flexibility: The NBK maintains exchange rate flexibility while intervening to stabilize FX and money markets.

Financial Sector

Stability: Banks weathered the crisis well due to strong pre-crisis buffers, but intensified financial supervision is needed due to increased consumer lending and liquidity risks.
Supervision and Resolution: Strengthening the supervisory framework and bank resolution mechanisms is recommended.
Digital Currency: The introduction of a central bank digital currency (CBDC) is encouraged, with careful consideration of its implications.

Structural Reforms

Economic Diversification: Structural reforms are prioritized to promote private sector-led growth and reduce reliance on hydrocarbons.
Supreme Council for Reforms: A new council, chaired by the President, was established to accelerate reform implementation and prioritization.
Anti-Corruption and Governance: Reforms to improve governance, reduce corruption, and enhance the business environment are highlighted as key priorities.
Carbon Neutrality: Kazakhstan aims to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 15% by 2030 (relative to 1990 levels) and achieve carbon neutrality by 2060.

Outlook and Risks

Growth Outlook: The baseline growth for 2022 is projected at 2.3%, with non-oil growth expected to converge to 4% in the medium term.
Inflation Outlook: Inflation is expected to remain elevated in 2022, with a medium-term target of 4%.
Current Account: A surplus of 3% of GDP is projected in 2022 due to higher oil prices, but a deficit of about 2% of GDP is expected in the medium term as imports grow faster than oil exports.
Downside Risks: Elevated risks from social tensions, external spillovers, and potential slowdowns in reforms are noted. The impact of sanctions on Russia could persist through trade, investment, and exchange rate channels.

Key Documents and Reports

Staff Report: Completed on March 21, 2022, based on discussions with Kazakh officials from November 2021.
Press Release: Summarized the Executive Board's views and was released on April 11, 2022.
Staff Statement: Updated information on recent developments.
Statement by the Executive Director: Provided insights from the IMF's perspective on Kazakhstan's economic situation.

Tables and Figures

Selected Economic Indicators (2019-2023): Showed real GDP growth, inflation rates, fiscal balances, and exchange rate changes.
Fiscal Operations: Highlighted the evolution of fiscal measures and their impact on deficits.
Monetary and Financial Sector Developments: Included trends in broad money, credit to the private sector, and exchange rate movements.
Balance of Payments: Provided insights into current account and net foreign direct investment figures.

Summary of Recommendations

Fiscal Policy: Gradual consolidation, strengthening revenue administration, and enhancing public expenditure efficiency.
Monetary Policy: Continue the transition to inflation targeting, maintain independence and credibility, and address dollarization.
Financial Sector: Strengthen supervision, resolution frameworks, and consider CBDC introduction.
Structural Reforms: Promote economic diversification, reduce state ownership, improve governance, and address climate challenges.

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