IMF国际货币组织全球-Central-African-Economic-and-Monetary-Community-_CEMAC_Staff-Report-on-the-Common-Policies-in-Support-of-Member-Countries-Reform-Programs_71页_2mb

Summary of IMF Country Report No. 19/383 on CEMAC

Core Content

The IMF Country Report No. 19/383 outlines the outcomes of the annual discussions with the Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CEMAC) on common policies and their support for member countries' reform programs. The report highlights the economic and financial situation of the region, policy recommendations, and the medium-term outlook.

Main Points

Economic and Financial Situation

• CEMAC's economic situation has improved but remains fragile, with economic activity still below pre-crisis levels.
• Non-oil growth slowed to below 2% in 2018, due to fiscal consolidation, domestic arrears, and regional security issues.
• Overall regional growth was 2.5% in 2018, supported by the oil sector. In 2019, growth is expected to remain at the same level, with a slight pick-up in non-oil growth offsetting a slowdown in oil production.
• Inflation is projected to stay around 2.5% over the medium term, below the regional convergence criterion.

External Reserves

• External reserves increased more rapidly in 2019, driven by tighter policies, stronger implementation of forex regulations, and continued external budget support and debt relief.
• The June 2019 target for regional net foreign assets (NFA) was exceeded by over €800 million.
• By end-2019, NFA is expected to exceed previous objectives by about €250 million, assuming no further delays in external financing.
• Reserve coverage of imports is currently at 3 months, still below the appropriate level of 5 months for a resource-rich currency union.

Fiscal Consolidation

• Fiscal consolidation efforts have continued, with the non-oil budget deficit expected to decline by an additional 1 percentage point of non-oil GDP in 2020.
• Public debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to fall to 47% in 2020 and less than 40% by 2023.
• Fiscal adjustment has mainly focused on spending cuts, with limited progress in increasing non-oil revenues and social spending remains below targets.

Monetary Policy

• BEAC has maintained an appropriately tight monetary policy stance.
• There is a need to gradually absorb excess liquidity in the banking sector to enhance monetary policy transmission.
• BEAC should avoid new financing agreements with BDEAC to maintain financial stability.

Foreign Exchange Regulation

• Strict implementation of forex regulations has improved the capital account.
• More support from national authorities is needed to ensure compliance by all public entities.
• BEAC should continue dialogue with oil and mining companies to enforce regulations while considering their specific needs.

Banking Sector

• The banking sector remains over-liquid and cautious in extending new credit.
• Broad money growth accelerated to 11% (y-o-y) in September 2019, driven by increased repatriation and surrender of forex.
• Credit growth remains low, due to high non-performing loans (NPLs) and sluggish economic activity.
• The ratio of overdue loans reached 22% at end-September 2019, with solvency and liquidity ratios declining.

Structural Reforms

• Structural reforms are critical to achieving more diversified and inclusive growth.
• Reforms should focus on improving governance, the business climate, and social development.
• Non-tariff barriers and underdeveloped financial sectors are major constraints to private sector growth.
• Enhanced transparency and accountability in public resource management and improved AML/CFT supervision are essential.

Regional Institutions

• COBAC should implement a more risk-based supervision and define a strategy to reduce NPLs.
• COBAC needs to strengthen its capacity, especially staffing levels.
• The CEMAC Commission has initiated work to improve the regional surveillance framework, including an early warning system and a draft sanction scheme.

Key Recommendations

• BEAC should continue an appropriately tight monetary policy and gradually absorb excess liquidity.
• COBAC should define a more assertive strategy to reduce NPLs and streamline bank resolution processes.
• CEMAC's regional institutions should define an action plan to improve governance and the business climate.
• More effective measures are needed to promote faster convergence and strengthen the multilateral surveillance framework.

Risks and Outlook

• The medium-term outlook assumes continued commitment to program objectives and the start of new programs with Equatorial Guinea and the Central African Republic.
• Potential risks include a slowdown in global growth, a decline in oil prices, and a deterioration in regional security.
• The external current account deficit is projected to worsen slightly to 2.8% of GDP in 2020, as oil exports may decline and imports increase with non-oil growth.
• Regional reserves are expected to reach 5 months of imports by 2022, provided that the current policies are sustained and implemented effectively.

Conclusion

The CEMAC region is at a critical juncture, with progress made in macroeconomic and financial policies, but significant challenges remain in terms of structural reforms and fiscal sustainability. The IMF emphasizes the need for continued commitment to reform programs and the implementation of common policies to support long-term economic stability and growth.