2019年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Central_African_Economic_and_Monetary_Community_CEMAC_Common_Policies_of_Member_Countries_and_Common_Policies_in_Support_of_Member_Countries_Reform_Programs_67页_1mb

Summary of IMF Country Report No. 19/1 on CEMAC

Core Content

The IMF Country Report No. 19/1 outlines the annual consultation discussions with the Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CEMAC), focusing on common policies of member countries and common policies in support of reform programs. The report was prepared for the IMF Executive Board on December 17, 2018, following discussions with regional institutions from October 23–November 2, 2018 in Libreville and Yaoundé.

The report assesses the economic and financial situation of the region, the implementation of regional strategies, and the medium-term outlook. It also includes policy recommendations for improving fiscal and monetary frameworks, banking sector stability, and sustained inclusive growth.

Key Issues

Regional Economic Situation

• Economic growth has remained sluggish since the 2014 oil price slump, with non-oil growth projected to decline in 2018 to 1.0% (from 2.6% in 2017).
• A larger-than-expected rebound in oil GDP (+7.3%) would help increase overall growth to 2.2% in 2018.
• Inflation is expected to remain low at around 2% at year-end.
• Regional reserves have underperformed despite higher-than-expected oil prices.
• Non-performing loans (NPLs) have continued to rise to 17% in September 2018, and the banking sector remains under pressure due to government arrears.

Medium-Term Outlook and Risks

• The medium-term outlook anticipates gradual improvement in the economic and financial situation.
• Non-oil growth is expected to recover to 4.5% by 2021, supported by reforms in the business environment, governance, and financial sector.
• Public debt is projected to decline to below 44% of GDP by 2020, and net foreign assets (NFA) are expected to return to target levels by 2020.
• Downside risks include further delays in financial arrangements, lower oil prices, and tighter global financial conditions.

Main Views and Recommendations

Executive Board Assessment

• Progress under the regional strategy has helped avert an immediate crisis, but objectives remain unmet.
• Fiscal consolidation is on track in most CEMAC countries, with Cameroon, CAR, Chad, and Equatorial Guinea meeting their targets.
• Congo has a larger-than-expected non-oil deficit, but the region as a whole is expected to meet fiscal balance expectations.
• BEAC has taken corrective actions, including raising the policy rate and strengthening foreign exchange regulations, to address the NFA shortfall.
• COBAC and BEAC have made substantial progress in modernizing the monetary policy framework and drafting new foreign exchange regulations.

Policy Recommendations

• Member states must strictly implement fiscal consolidation plans and support BEAC and COBAC in enforcing foreign exchange regulations.
• BEAC should focus on reducing excess liquidity and developing the interbank market.
• COBAC should prioritize risk-based supervision, strengthen the supervisory framework, resolve distressed banks more promptly, and implement NPL reduction plans.
• National and regional authorities should intensify efforts to restore sustained inclusive growth, including:
  • Enhancing non-oil revenue mobilization.
  • Improving governance and public financial management.
  • Promoting regional integration and enhancing the business climate.
  • Strengthening AML/CFT supervision.

Key Institutions and Roles

• BEAC (Bank of Central African States): Responsible for monetary policy, foreign exchange regulation, and net foreign assets (NFA) management.
• COBAC (Central African Banking Commission): Overseeing prudential regulations, risk-based supervision, and banking sector reforms.
• CEMAC Commission: Playing a role in regional governance and policy coordination.
• IMF Staff: Conducted the consultation and prepared the report, highlighting the need for continued reforms and strict implementation of policy commitments.

Timeline and Implementation

• Annual discussions were held in October–November 2018.
• IMF-supported programs with Congo and Equatorial Guinea are expected to be approved in early 2019, which would unlock external budget support.
• NFA shortfall in 2018 is projected at €430 million, but recovery is expected in 2019 with €1.1 billion increase if new programs are approved.
• Fiscal balance (excluding grants) is expected to reach equilibrium from 2019 onward.
• Reserve coverage is projected to reach almost 4 months of imports by 2020.

Conclusion

The IMF Executive Board emphasized that continued implementation of policy commitments is critical for restoring regional stability and achieving sustainable growth. While some progress has been made, challenges such as government arrears, poor governance, and slow economic diversification remain. The next CEMAC common policies discussion is expected to follow the standard 12-month cycle.

Additional Information

• Price: $18.00 per printed copy.
• Contact: International Monetary Fund, Publication Services, Washington, D.C. 20090.
• Website: http://www.imf.org
• Email: publications@imf.org
• Phone: (202) 623-7430
• Fax: (202) 623-7201

Supporting Documents

• Press Release: Includes a statement by the Chair of the Executive Board.
• Staff Report: Analyzes economic and financial developments, policy implementation, and medium-term projections.
• Statement by the Executive Director: Provides policy guidance and recommendations.
• Annexes:
  • Response to Past IMF Advice
  • Risk Assessment Matrix
  • External Sector Assessment
• Appendix:
  • Follow-up to the Letter of Support to the Recovery and Reform Programs.