20240128-IMF-Oman_2023_Article_IV_Consultation-Press_Release_Staff_Report_and_Statement_by_the_Executive_Director_for_Oman_92页_7mb

报告摘要

Oman's economy remains resilient, supported by favorable oil prices and sustained fiscal reforms.
Economic growth was 4.3% in 2022 and is projected to moderate to 1.4% in 2024, with gradual strengthening in non-hydrocarbon sectors.
Inflation has remained contained, hovering around 1-2% amid the dollar peg, supported by subsidy caps and fiscal discipline.

Fiscal sustainability strengthened: The overall fiscal balance moved to surplus (5.5% of GDP in 2023), reflecting higher oil revenues, expenditure rationalization, and significant debt reduction.
Tax reforms ongoing: Efforts include implementing VAT e-invoicing, targeting the tax gap, and phasing out energy subsidies by 2030, supported by a new social protection law.
Medium-term fiscal framework (MTFF) is being institutionalized to enhance budget credibility and intergenerational equity, aligning with a non-hydrocarbon primary deficit target of 19% of GDP.

Vision 2040 continues to drive economic diversification, aiming for 84% non-hydrocarbon GDP by 2030 and net zero emissions by 2050.
Key sectors: Renewable energy, logistics, tourism, and green hydrogen (e.g., Hydrom subsidiary) are prioritized to reduce reliance on hydrocarbons.
Labor market flexibility improved with new laws allowing remote work and better mobility; female labor force participation is on track to rise further under new policies.

The exchange rate peg remains a credible monetary anchor, with the Central Bank of Oman (CBO) managing liquidity through tools like reserve requirements and exploring an interest rate corridor.
Banking sector resilience is supported by strong capitalization (e.g., Tier-1 capital ratios above regulatory standards) and stress testing confirms limited vulnerability to shocks.
Financial sector development focuses on Treasury Single Account (TSA) rollout, bond market growth, and FinTech advancements, with commitments to enhance monetary policy independence.

External buffers improved, with reserves covering 6 months of imports and $35.7 billion in liquid assets.
Current account surplus projected at 2.8% of GDP in 2023, driven by hydrocarbon exports; non-hydrocarbon exports are increasing (now 35% of total exports).
Stability amid global uncertainties, but risks remain from energy price volatility and geopolitical conflicts.

Downside risks: Sharp oil price declines, slower reform implementation, or external shocks could weigh on growth and fiscal balances.
Upside potential: Higher oil/gas prices, global disinflation, and accelerated reforms could support growth, but dependency on hydrocarbons remains a concern.

Authorities agree with IMF recommendations to prioritize fiscal consolidation, diversification, and monetary policy adjustments.
Phasing out untargeted subsidies, enhancing tax collection, strengthening medium-term fiscal frameworks, and boosting financial inclusion are critical.
Continued alignment with Oman Vision 2040 and fisc al discipline are essential for long-term stability and growth.

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