20250527-Bernstein-全球半导体资本设备_全球半导体设备_扭转潮流_35页_1mb

Global Semiconductor Capital Equipment Forecast Summary (27 May 2025)

Key WFE Revisions

• 2025 WFE Forecast lifted to $111bn (+2% YoY) from $108bn; 2026 lifted to $119bn (+7% YoY) from $115bn.
• China WFE outlook improved: -13% YoY (previously -20%) in 2025, +5% YoY (flat previously) in 2026.
• NAND capex up to $9.1bn (previously $8.6bn), growing 52% YoY.
• Logic/Foundry capex $66bn (previously $64bn), declining 7% YoY due to INTC outlook.

Driving Forces

• Stronger-than-expected China spending, especially in foundry (-16% YoY lift) and NAND (-24% YoY lift).
• NAND upgrades, with forecast growth of 51% YoY in 2025 and 59% in 2026.

Key Players & Ratings

• Lam Research (LRCX): Outperform; price target $95. Benefits from NAND upgrade cycle.
• Applied Materials (AMAT): Outperform; price target $210. Lower China exposure (~22%) offsets higher valuation.
• Tokyo Electron (TEL): Outperform; price target ¥33,800 (~¥43% upside). Share gain expected despite weaker China contribution.
• Kokusai: Outperform; price target ¥3,640. Focus on batch ALD market share.
• Zhangjiang NAURA (002371), AMEC (688012), Piotech (688072): All Outperform due to domestic substitution gains and AI-driven capacity expansion.

Investment Implications

• LRCX leans toward, AMAT remains attractively valued despite tempered growth.
• China WFE decline pressures Japanese players, but niche players (TEL, Kokusai) positioned to benefit.

Summary of Outlook

• Global semiconductor capex sees stable growth driven by China's recovery and NAND upgrades.
• China capex moderated from severe declines, but still below 2024 levels.
• Focus shifts to execution in NAND/QFN, AI logic, and hybrid bonding tech.