奥斯陆和平研究所-战略研究基金会-东地中海的团结与威慑（英）-2021.6_41页_2mb

Summary of "Solidarity and Deterrence in the Eastern Mediterranean"

Core Content

This report analyzes the possibility of invoking Article 42.7 TEU (the EU collective defence clause) in the context of the 2020 crisis between Greece and Turkey in the Eastern Mediterranean. It explores the legal, political, and strategic dimensions of this potential activation, emphasizing the sensitivity of the issue and its implications for EU-NATO relations and regional security.

Main Points

1. Western Reactions to the Crisis

• The 2020 crisis in the Eastern Mediterranean led to a dual strategy among Western countries:

  • De-escalation and dialogue through engagement with Turkey, both at the NATO and EU levels.
  • Deterrence via economic and political measures, with the EU being a key player in this approach.

• Greece was the only country to explicitly mention the possibility of invoking Article 42.7 TEU, signaling a shift in its stance from relying solely on NATO to considering EU-level solidarity and mutual assistance.

• NATO's institutional limitations prevent it from addressing internal disputes among its members, which has led to a reliance on U.S. political leadership to manage tensions.

2. Legal Considerations for Invoking Article 42.7 TEU

• Admissibility: While Article 42.7 TEU is a collective defence clause, its invocation against a NATO ally (Turkey) is legally ambiguous and politically sensitive.

• Historical context: The Petersberg Declaration (WEU, 1999) and the 2002 European Council assurances on EU-NATO relations suggest a NATO caveat in the EU's collective defence clause, indicating that it is unlikely to be invoked against a NATO member.

• Casus foederis: The clause can only be activated if there is an armed aggression on the territory of a Member State. In the Eastern Mediterranean, this is problematic, as most of the conflict involves maritime disputes rather than direct territorial invasion.

3. Scenarios and Implications

• Activation of Article 42.7 TEU would require a dramatic escalation of tensions, such as a direct military confrontation.

• The EU's response would need to be flexible and differentiated, with member states contributing in various ways depending on their capabilities and interests.

• The report considers the operationalisation of the clause and its potential impact on the Strategic Compass and a possible political declaration on Article 42.7 TEU.

• The low probability of invoking the clause is due to:

  • The political sensitivity of the issue.
  • The unwillingness of EU member states to take strong action against a NATO ally.
  • The limited impact of such an invocation on the root causes of the dispute.

Key Information

• Article 42.7 TEU is a provision under the Treaty on European Union (TEU) that obliges EU member states to assist a member state that is the victim of armed aggression on its territory.

• The Greek government raised this option during the 2020 crisis, indicating a strategic shift in its approach to regional security.

• NATO is not equipped to resolve internal disputes, and its effectiveness depends on U.S. leadership, which was hesitant during the Trump administration.

• The EU's strategy in 2020 was to balance engagement with Ankara and defending its members' interests, using limited sanctions and promoting dialogue.

• The European Council avoided imposing broader sanctions, fearing deterioration of relations with Turkey and the impact on future cooperation, especially with the new Biden administration.

• The possibility of a comprehensive arms embargo or suspension of the customs union remains on the table, though not yet activated.

• The Strategic Compass and potential political declaration on Article 42.7 TEU are being developed, but the link between the crisis and these initiatives is expected to be indirect and ambiguous.

Conclusion

• The report concludes that the activation of Article 42.7 TEU against Turkey is a taboo scenario, due to the complex political and legal implications.

• While the threat of military conflict in the region persists, the EU is unlikely to invoke the clause in the short term, given the dual role of Turkey as both a NATO ally and a potential EU candidate.

• The EU's approach remains diplomatic and cautious, emphasizing cooperation and dialogue over confrontation.