深度-欧洲地中海研究委员会-在不确定性中茁壮成长：恐怖组织与新冠疫情相关的机会（英文）-2021.6-86页_6mb

Summary: THRIVING ON UNCERTAINTY: COVID-19-RELATED OPPORTUNITIES FOR TERRORIST GROUPS

Core Content

This policy study explores the relationship between the COVID-19 pandemic and terrorist activities in three key regions: the Sahel, the Mashreq, and the Maghreb. It analyzes how terrorist groups have adapted to the pandemic and how state responses have influenced the dynamics of extremist recruitment and operations. The study is conducted by the EuroMeSCo network, a leading platform for Euro-Mediterranean policy research, and co-funded by the European Union and the European Institute of the Mediterranean (IEMed).

The Policy Center for the New South (PCNS), a Moroccan think tank, is one of the main contributors to the study. The PCNS focuses on economic and social policies in Africa and the Global South, promoting African expertise and dialogue with the global north.

Main Findings

The study argues that while the pandemic has created uncertainty, it has not led to a significant increase in terrorist activity in the short term. However, the long-term implications are still being assessed. The key findings include:

• State responses to the pandemic have not significantly weakened terrorist groups in the Sahel, despite initial fears that lockdowns and resource reallocation would create governance vacuums.
• Terrorist groups have exploited the pandemic as a tool for propaganda and recruitment, framing the virus as a divine punishment for the West and using it to justify their actions.
• In the Mashreq region, particularly in Iraq and Syria, ISIS has adapted its recruitment strategies to the digital space, using online platforms to spread its ideology and attract younger generations.
• The Maghreb region has seen a potential link between popular discontent and terrorist activity, though the correlation remains unclear and requires further study.

Key Points of Analysis

1. Theoretical Framework of Jihadist Doctrine

• Jihadist movements base their actions on a normative and theoretical corpus that includes dogmatic principles and context-specific interpretations.
• The pandemic has been used by extremist theorists to justify their ideology, portraying it as a divine punishment and a tool for recruitment.
• The online presence of terrorist groups has increased, leveraging the lockdowns to reach more people and spread their message.

2. Impact of the Pandemic on State Capacity

• The Sahel region has experienced ongoing security challenges, with state capacity being tested by the pandemic.
• Governance issues such as corruption, elite capture, and weak institutions have not been significantly exacerbated by the pandemic.
• Containment measures have not led to a decline in terrorist activity, and state responses have remained consistent.

3. Recruitment Strategies in the Mashreq Region

• ISIS has shifted its focus to digital recruitment, using social media and online propaganda to attract new members.
• The virus has been interpreted as a divine test, reinforcing the ideological narrative of the group.
• Preventive measures such as lockdowns have increased online engagement, providing an opportunity for Jihadist propaganda.

4. Maghreb Region: Crisis Intensifier?

• The Maghreb has seen a rise in popular discontent, which could potentially fuel terrorism.
• The pandemic has acted as a crisis intensifier, but evidence of a direct link to increased terrorist activity is limited.
• State responses and public perception are key factors in determining the impact of the pandemic on extremist recruitment.

Main Recommendations

The study proposes several policy recommendations for the European Union and international stakeholders to address the interlinkage between the pandemic and terrorism:

• Redirect existing funding towards COVID-19 responses to avoid long-term negative effects on fragile regions.
• Launch national awareness campaigns to help citizens identify and report online recruitment by terrorist groups, especially ISIS.
• Encourage international cooperation to exchange information and expertise between the Sahel, Mashreq, Maghreb and the EU.
• Promote an evidence-based approach to pandemic management, recognizing its potential to intensify crises.
• Integrate P/CVE (Prevention and Countering Violent Extremism) into broader policy frameworks, including legal migration and sustainable economic growth.
• Provide financial support to Iraqi and Syrian Sunni youths to launch small and micro-enterprises, especially in post-ISIS areas.

Conclusion

The study concludes that while the pandemic has not directly caused an increase in terrorist activity, it has created new opportunities for Jihadist groups to expand their propaganda and recruitment efforts. It emphasizes the need for a comprehensive and multi-dimensional approach to counter violent extremism, combining security, economic, and social policies. The European Union is encouraged to adapt its strategies to the new realities of the pandemic, ensuring that fragile states and populations are protected and supported.

Authors and Contributors

• Abdelhak Bassou – Senior Fellow, Policy Center for the New South (PCNS)
• Johannes Claes, Kars de Bruijne, Sophie Mertens – Research Fellows and Interns, Clingendael Institute
• Eman Ragab – Author of the chapter on Recruitment Strategies in the Mashreq Region
• Clara-Auguste Süβ – Author of the chapter on The Pandemic and its Handling as Crisis Intensifiers?
• Kamel Akrout – Policy Peer Reviewer, Institute for Prospective and Advanced Strategic and Security Studies (IPASSS)

References

• Benraad, M. (2020). Quand la propaganda djihadiste s'empare de la crise sanitaire. The Conversation.
• Bousset, P. (2020). Covid-19, le djihadisme au début d'une pandémie. Fondation pour la Recherche Stratégique.
• De Courrèges, H., Germain, E., & Le Nen, N. (2010). Principes de contreinsurrection. ECONOMICA.
• Stalinsky, S. (2020). What Jihadists are saying about the coronavirus. The Wall Street Journal.